Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
Enovix is worth a small bet from beaten-up levels because of a known potential catalyst, its qualification with Honor, which required chemistry tweaks disclosed in February to improve battery cycle life and durability. Big call buying at the October $7 strike, rare six months out in this market, adds to the setup. x.comÂ
Enovix's latest release hints it may be winning, because Honor will now test its 100% silicon-anode battery under new standards suited to the architecture rather than the legacy 0.7C test that compressed a year of durability into months. Under the new tests, Enovix's results are approaching the required thresholds, supporting a commercial opportunity that could mean a launch. Its sales pipeline and market demand are growing, and a new SVP of sales is joining at the right time. x.comÂ
Enovix's initial drone-battery order and $216 million drone, defense and industrial pipeline underpin the bullish setup. A dual-use drone maker ordered 100,000 batteries for delivery in the first half of 2027, with follow-on orders expected afterward. Early Q3 revenue rose 38% to $11 million and beat guidance. Friday's call volume was about twice normal; the rounding-bottom setup favors a breakout if shares reclaim and hold $2.97, with targets of $3.59, $4.17 and $5.00. x.comÂ
Enovix is likely to fall below $2 and then be bought by a bigger company that runs with the technology. Pulling off this kind of battery technology is extremely difficult for a small company, and no one will trust a small company with it. @SLMacro notes its CEO has resigned. x.comÂ
QuantumScape is a highly speculative bet that this week's 13F filings reveal hedge funds loading up, after Renaissance, Vanguard and BlackRock raised stakes in Q4. It trades at a $5B valuation with $1B of cash and 20% short interest, as volume and call open interest climb. A solid-state battery leader with patents, it has expanded beyond EVs to AI data centers and defense and switched to licensing. The risk: solid-state batteries have been "almost here" for 5+ years and remain at pilot scale. … Show more
EnerSys is a good long-term pick because it will have the only large lithium plant in the US in 2028. A post the author replies to calls it a multi-bagger in the making that still trades at a low valuation. x.comÂ
Enovix is still guiding for more than $3 of operating losses for every $1 of revenue it expects, eight months after earlier criticism of the company. The stock is in the dumpster while markets make new highs. x.comÂ
Amprius is a rare opportunity as a drone battery company that is profitable. x.comÂ
QuantumScape has a second growth leg the market is not pricing: battery-in-rack backup for AI data centers. Its non-combustible ceramic separator lets cells sit inside server racks, buffering millisecond power spikes faster than external UPS systems as racks pass 100 kW. In EVs, Honda signed a development deal after validating hardware. A hyperscaler design win would re-rate it as AI infrastructure. It has $904M of liquidity, but is pre-revenue and depends on scaling its Cobra process reliably. … Show more
Enovix is a legit zero and a fraud. Per @Richard_X_Roe, the preliminary datasheet for its MX1-B01 cell is a carbon copy of Amprius' SA08 datasheet, and no device on the market has used Enovix's silicon cells after 14 years. x.com x.comÂ
