Waterworld Capital
Public Markets Commentary
Enovix is likely to fall below $2 and then be bought by a bigger company that runs with the technology. Pulling off this kind of battery technology is extremely difficult for a small company, and no one will trust a small company with it. @SLMacro notes its CEO has resigned. x.comÂ
Enovix is still guiding for more than $3 of operating losses for every $1 of revenue it expects, eight months after earlier criticism of the company. The stock is in the dumpster while markets make new highs. x.comÂ
Enovix's latest release hints it may be winning, because Honor will now test its 100% silicon-anode battery under new standards suited to the architecture rather than the legacy 0.7C test that compressed a year of durability into months. Under the new tests, Enovix's results are approaching the required thresholds, supporting a commercial opportunity that could mean a launch. Its sales pipeline and market demand are growing, and a new SVP of sales is joining at the right time. x.comÂ
Jan Zuazo Pfingsten
Thematic Investor, Physical Scarcity & AI Infrastructure, Primary-Source Research
Amprius has solved its real bottleneck, scale manufacturing: its new 500 Wh/kg SiCore cell for long-endurance aviation can be made on conventional lithium-ion equipment. Earlier 500 Wh/kg cells needed special processes and never reached volume, and Wall Street doubted execution, not technology or demand. Now its asset-light contract manufacturers can make it. Airbus subsidiary AALTO has used Amprius cells since 2018 in the Zephyr, which set a 67-day stratospheric flight record in 2025. x.comÂ
Amprius Technologies' 27% post-earnings drop is an overreaction to a 2-cent EPS miss, and a quick turnaround looks likely. Revenue hit a record $28.5M, up 153% and 11% above estimates; gross profit rose 343%, the net loss narrowed 46% and gross margin reached 20%, or 22% excluding one-time Colorado costs. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to at least $130M. Its NDAA-compliant silicon-anode batteries, with twice lithium-ion's energy density, supply Pentagon drone programs. x.comÂ
Enovix is worth a small bet from beaten-up levels because of a known potential catalyst, its qualification with Honor, which required chemistry tweaks disclosed in February to improve battery cycle life and durability. Big call buying at the October $7 strike, rare six months out in this market, adds to the setup. x.comÂ
Amprius Technologies could become a drone-era bottleneck play, the way AI created bottlenecks elsewhere, after the recent government drone news. It makes next-generation silicon-carbon batteries, its largest customer is the Department of War, and it has already supplied many batteries to Ukraine. With abundant liquidity in stocks, the move could have legs, though this is a low-conviction call. x.comÂ
Amprius is a rare opportunity as a drone battery company that is profitable. x.comÂ
Enovix's initial drone-battery order and $216 million drone, defense and industrial pipeline underpin the bullish setup. A dual-use drone maker ordered 100,000 batteries for delivery in the first half of 2027, with follow-on orders expected afterward. Early Q3 revenue rose 38% to $11 million and beat guidance. Friday's call volume was about twice normal; the rounding-bottom setup favors a breakout if shares reclaim and hold $2.97, with targets of $3.59, $4.17 and $5.00. x.comÂ