Rivian has yet to prove it can build cars profitably, and its self-driving effort is far more than two years behind Tesla's, a total dealbreaker. That rebuts @calistoker123's case that R2 is the second-best US EV and that Rivian, at a $23 billion market cap, could deserve $100 billion if it executes on R2, R3 and self-driving. x.com 

Rivian's R2 is going to flop, because once a carmaker goes low cost it is game over. Rivian is burning massive cash while the auto market weakens fast on rates and inflation, and its $21B market cap should be closer to Lucid's. x.com 

Rivian's Q3 results appear to have crushed expectations, adding a record revenue quarter to its growth case. At first glance, revenue was $2.16B versus $2B estimated, and the loss was $0.48 per share versus $0.74 estimated. x.com 

Rivian is next in line for trouble once investors stop funding its cash-burning business. Lucid's stock fell 48% to an all-time low after a report that it is considering going private or filing for Chapter 11; Lucid had not commented. x.com 

Rivian's plan to scale cost-efficient R2 and R3 models is unlikely to work well. Steady-state demand and price point remain unproven, an $85K loss per car is a large hole to climb out of, and even if all of that goes well it has no path to Level 4 self-driving. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's distraction with merging with SpaceX makes Rivian a great buy here. x.com 

Rivian will follow Lucid toward bankruptcy because none of these EV companies can make a profitable vehicle. Lucid's stock crashed 30% in 30 minutes on bankruptcy reports, which Lucid denies. x.com  x.com 

Rivian is underweight with a $9 December 2026 target because its $16.50 price assumes the R2 ramp, positive gross margins and Volkswagen money all arrive on time. Its 62,000–67,000 delivery guidance needs H2 quarterly deliveries to nearly double during the R2 launch. $6.1B of cash plus $2B from Volkswagen gives runway, but year-end cash hinges on execution; missing positive gross margins, guided for end-2026, by a quarter means dilution, by two a restructuring. Volkswagen limits the downside. … Show more

Rivian is positioned to be second only to Tesla in consumer autonomy, and R2 deliveries have finally begun. Self-driving is becoming real for those with the data and compute, Uber recently struck a deal with Rivian, and no automaker outside Tesla and Rivian has vertically integrated as far. It won't be a profitable machine soon, but the coming quarters will show whether R2 has its Model 3/Y moment, and after an 18% drop on dilution news a $20 billion valuation looks worth holding. x.com 

Rivian is unappealing, as 37% whale accumulation on its monthly chart explains the stock's lack of price momentum. x.com