The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
Armaments makers should benefit if the Iran conflict drags on or worsens, with ammunition inventories already low. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are retesting, while suppliers of the essential materials and stocks such as Smith & Wesson follow the narrative. The initial trade is done, but there is much more to come if longer disruptions, more combat or a ground invasion spread fear of escalation. x.com
Lockheed Martin is a strong geopolitical diversifier alongside the energy complex for investors heavily long semiconductors. It landed a Pentagon deal for 850 F-35 jets and raised its annual forecast; the multi-model signal has been long since October 16. x.com
Defense stocks such as Kratos, AeroVironment, Ondas, Northrop Grumman and L3Harris are trading as if global leaders had turned into pacifist hippies, which is probably not the case. x.com
Defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and RTX always dump the day peace headlines land, because the conflict buildup was the trade. Explanations about how Patriot and THAAD performed, as @HyperTechInvest suggests, are what people tell themselves afterward. x.com
RTX and Lockheed Martin should keep succeeding over the long term because war is good business. The big defense stocks have gone parabolic since COVID, but betting against them is a mistake. RTX's new contract matters more for Rocket Lab than for RTX, though it is still a positive. x.com
Northrop Grumman shows a bullish disconnect: the stock is pricing in supply chain issues and lagging near its lows, while sales are surging and the government is ready to spend $1.5 trillion on new arms. x.com
Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com … Show more
Lockheed Martin's earnings beat and raised guidance point to a defense-stock shortage quietly approaching. Per TrendSpider, third-quarter EPS was $7.97 against $7.42 expected and sales were $20.711 billion against $20.495 billion expected; FY2026 GAAP EPS and sales guidance were raised. x.com
A US military-budget increase would be well-timed for defense stocks as most appear to be bottoming or sitting on support. If history repeats, one will probably be announced soon. Since the earlier sell signals, Amprius is down about 42%, AeroVironment about 60% and Ondas about 54%; many other names also look oversold. x.com
Legacy defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and RTX face new competition that is coming to eat their lunch. @damianplayer notes Anduril built a new Apache-launched drone weapon in six months that flies 286 miles and, in one version, hits as hard as a Hellfire missile, when defense projects used to take 20 years. An Anduril IPO is more exciting than SpaceX's. x.com
Lockheed Martin's strong earnings, raised guidance and a potential historic F-35 deal support its stock as the price presses toward a wedge breakout. Q3 EPS and sales exceeded estimates; the F-35 deal remains potential. x.com
