Schmid Group's turnaround is real, but at $6.87 it carries mega-cap multiples for a sub-scale company with going-concern doubt and a dilution overhang. Fully diluted it trades at 6.5x EV/sales and 54x EV/EBITDA on the bull guide, with shares possibly rising from 43M to 102M, though that is a worst-case ceiling. Management missed its FY25 revenue guide by 7% and EBITDA margin by 6 points, and now guides FY26 to €100M+ at 12%. H2 2025 did deliver €50M at 35% gross margin. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SCHMID Group has top-tier glass-substrate equipment, but heavy dilution and an unproven second half make it a stock to wait on. Its backlog was €49M at end-Q1 2026 and it is commercializing its Any Layer ET process for AI chip packaging, yet Q1 revenue was only €18.2M against reiterated FY guidance above €100M with adjusted EBITDA margin well above 12%. A €30.75M debt-for-equity swap and note conversions push shares past 57.8M. Until H2 delivery is evident, the stock likely stays under pressure. … Show more

Schmid may finally have a path to fund growth with operating cash flow and cheap debt instead of new stock, while orders accelerate. Order intake reached €96.6M through August, with a record backlog near €90M and much of it flowing into 2027. Management says it is "pretty well financed", sees no need for new equity for at least six months and has Chinese debt at about 2.7%. It remains a high-risk turnaround: management must convert backlog, lift a 21.2% gross margin and generate cash. x.com 

SCHMID Group's financials are too poor, and pilot-phase adoption does not offset that despite a small revenue increase. It may be worth another look later. x.com 

SCHMID Group's risk-reward does not yet compensate for its capital structure and competitive position, though its AI recovery is real. Up to 104 million diluted shares versus 65 million outstanding, plus €154 million net debt, put it above 60x EV/EBITDA. Ten customers make up 60% of revenue; MKS Instruments leads. It gets more defensible if orders convert as guided, convertibles shrink without new issuance, a tier-one substrate maker enters qualification and no new China export curbs hit. x.com  … Show more

SCHMID is the lone European name in AI substrate tooling, over 90% of which ships from Asia, and its plating and wet-process lines feed the advanced-packaging step every AI chip passes through. The June 9 Zhongshan campus deal nearly doubles its regional capacity. It is a speculative flyer only: revenue fell 38% y/y to about €67M, net debt is ~€83M against €4M cash, and losses exceed sales, yet it trades at 5.1x EV/sales. A dilutive raise before the ramp pays off is what kills it. x.com 

Schmid Group is moments from dilution, with almost no room for error in its cash runway. That financial position is critical to any comparison of glass-substrate plays, even as a post the author replies to argues upstream suppliers gain pricing power after Intel's CFO called glass a margin headwind. x.com 

SCHMID Group should hit all-time highs before long because dilution fears do not matter in this market, where companies like it are getting money thrown at them. Its ownership structure limits dilution to what is strictly necessary, and management is unambiguously aligned with shareholders. Its current price is an anomaly given where the rest of the market has gone. x.com