GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
SCHMID is the lone European name in AI substrate tooling, over 90% of which ships from Asia, and its plating and wet-process lines feed the advanced-packaging step every AI chip passes through. The June 9 Zhongshan campus deal nearly doubles its regional capacity. It is a speculative flyer only: revenue fell 38% y/y to about €67M, net debt is ~€83M against €4M cash, and losses exceed sales, yet it trades at 5.1x EV/sales. A dilutive raise before the ramp pays off is what kills it. x.com
SCHMID's trace-embedding tools are the West's route back into advanced IC substrates, over 90% of which are made in Asia. HDI-ML plating lines take years to qualify, and a €37M repeat order on July 7 for AI server boards and optical modules lifts bookings since mid-May above €63M, against about €67M trailing revenue. But revenue is down 38%, book value is negative and net debt is €83M against €4M cash. It stays a small speculative bet; debt forcing dilution before orders pay would kill it. x.com
IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com … Show more
SCHMID may be benefiting from a new substrate plant in Singapore, per an unconfirmed hint. x.com
SCHMID Group has top-tier glass-substrate equipment, but heavy dilution and an unproven second half make it a stock to wait on. Its backlog was €49M at end-Q1 2026 and it is commercializing its Any Layer ET process for AI chip packaging, yet Q1 revenue was only €18.2M against reiterated FY guidance above €100M with adjusted EBITDA margin well above 12%. A €30.75M debt-for-equity swap and note conversions push shares past 57.8M. Until H2 delivery is evident, the stock likely stays under pressure. … Show more
Schmid may finally have a path to fund growth with operating cash flow and cheap debt instead of new stock, while orders accelerate. Order intake reached €96.6M through August, with a record backlog near €90M and much of it flowing into 2027. Management says it is "pretty well financed", sees no need for new equity for at least six months and has Chinese debt at about 2.7%. It remains a high-risk turnaround: management must convert backlog, lift a 21.2% gross margin and generate cash. x.com
Unimicron should benefit from a persistent AI ABF substrate shortage and a shift toward higher-end products. Its projected share exceeds 30% as the market reaches $13bn/$18bn in 2027/28; added capacity is expected to lift ABF revenue 66%/90%. Higher-end ABF, mSAP and LPDDR lift margins, supporting 77% EPS CAGR. Initiate Buy with a NT$1,820 target at 30x 2027 earnings. x.com
SCHMID Group's risk-reward does not yet compensate for its capital structure and competitive position, though its AI recovery is real. Up to 104 million diluted shares versus 65 million outstanding, plus €154 million net debt, put it above 60x EV/EBITDA. Ten customers make up 60% of revenue; MKS Instruments leads. It gets more defensible if orders convert as guided, convertibles shrink without new issuance, a tier-one substrate maker enters qualification and no new China export curbs hit. x.com … Show more
Intel's growing server profit gives its recovery firmer support, though Q4's margin reset limits extrapolation. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3B; foundry losses narrowed to $1.85B but remain substantial. Management guides Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to 38% from 44.1% in Q3, while client sales fell 5%. The 14A milestone alone does not establish external foundry commitments. x.com
Customer prepayments of about $3.2B for Amkor's capacity exceed its roughly $2.5B planned capex this year, funding the buildout ahead of delivery. Buy, with a $48 target. x.com
SCHMID Group's financials are too poor, and pilot-phase adoption does not offset that despite a small revenue increase. It may be worth another look later. x.com
SCHMID Group should hit all-time highs before long because dilution fears do not matter in this market, where companies like it are getting money thrown at them. Its ownership structure limits dilution to what is strictly necessary, and management is unambiguously aligned with shareholders. Its current price is an anomaly given where the rest of the market has gone. x.com
