peony
Equity Investor & Researcher
SCHMID Group should hit all-time highs before long because dilution fears do not matter in this market, where companies like it are getting money thrown at them. Its ownership structure limits dilution to what is strictly necessary, and management is unambiguously aligned with shareholders. Its current price is an anomaly given where the rest of the market has gone. x.com
Schmid may finally have a path to fund growth with operating cash flow and cheap debt instead of new stock, while orders accelerate. Order intake reached €96.6M through August, with a record backlog near €90M and much of it flowing into 2027. Management says it is "pretty well financed", sees no need for new equity for at least six months and has Chinese debt at about 2.7%. It remains a high-risk turnaround: management must convert backlog, lift a 21.2% gross margin and generate cash. x.com
SCHMID is the lone European name in AI substrate tooling, over 90% of which ships from Asia, and its plating and wet-process lines feed the advanced-packaging step every AI chip passes through. The June 9 Zhongshan campus deal nearly doubles its regional capacity. It is a speculative flyer only: revenue fell 38% y/y to about €67M, net debt is ~€83M against €4M cash, and losses exceed sales, yet it trades at 5.1x EV/sales. A dilutive raise before the ramp pays off is what kills it. x.com
Schmid Group's turnaround is real, but at $6.87 it carries mega-cap multiples for a sub-scale company with going-concern doubt and a dilution overhang. Fully diluted it trades at 6.5x EV/sales and 54x EV/EBITDA on the bull guide, with shares possibly rising from 43M to 102M, though that is a worst-case ceiling. Management missed its FY25 revenue guide by 7% and EBITDA margin by 6 points, and now guides FY26 to €100M+ at 12%. H2 2025 did deliver €50M at 35% gross margin. x.com x.com x.com
Momentus' $25M raise reads better than the dilution headline, because it gives the microcap real runway and fresh institutional backing. It leaves about $76M in cash after years of living raise to raise, came from existing fundamental investors adding to positions, and was priced around $8.50, above the $3.75 and $5.40 deals earlier this year. The caution is real: it is close to 30% dilution in a thin-revenue, high-beta name. The stance is cautiously bullish for those who can handle the swings. … Show more
AbCellera's $200M offering looks bullish, because dilution is not always negative when it pulls revenue forward or is accretive long term. As @JackPrescottX notes, the company already had $675M of available liquidity, and the raise suggests it plans to take ABCL635 all the way to market rather than partner it. Any extended dip is a buying opportunity. x.com
Schmid Group is moments from dilution, with almost no room for error in its cash runway. That financial position is critical to any comparison of glass-substrate plays, even as a post the author replies to argues upstream suppliers gain pricing power after Intel's CFO called glass a margin headwind. x.com
Alibaba has a decent bull case that the market is ignoring after pricing in dilution from its $10.2B stock sale. Most investors didn't look at why or how Alibaba raised the money. Insiders clearly saw it differently, adding over $100M in shares. A deeper top-down and bottom-up analysis with @AlphaPicks shows there is much more to the story than "dilution is bad". x.com
POET Technologies will likely dilute shareholders soon because it desperately needs to raise cash. That comes after an 80% three-day rally sparked by its CTO confirming an order from Celestial AI. x.com
SCHMID Group has top-tier glass-substrate equipment, but heavy dilution and an unproven second half make it a stock to wait on. Its backlog was €49M at end-Q1 2026 and it is commercializing its Any Layer ET process for AI chip packaging, yet Q1 revenue was only €18.2M against reiterated FY guidance above €100M with adjusted EBITDA margin well above 12%. A €30.75M debt-for-equity swap and note conversions push shares past 57.8M. Until H2 delivery is evident, the stock likely stays under pressure. … Show more
SCHMID Group's risk-reward does not yet compensate for its capital structure and competitive position, though its AI recovery is real. Up to 104 million diluted shares versus 65 million outstanding, plus €154 million net debt, put it above 60x EV/EBITDA. Ten customers make up 60% of revenue; MKS Instruments leads. It gets more defensible if orders convert as guided, convertibles shrink without new issuance, a tier-one substrate maker enters qualification and no new China export curbs hit. x.com … Show more
