Schmid Group's turnaround is real, but at $6.87 it carries mega-cap multiples for a sub-scale company with going-concern doubt and a dilution overhang. Fully diluted it trades at 6.5x EV/sales and 54x EV/EBITDA on the bull guide, with shares possibly rising from 43M to 102M, though that is a worst-case ceiling. Management missed its FY25 revenue guide by 7% and EBITDA margin by 6 points, and now guides FY26 to €100M+ at 12%. H2 2025 did deliver €50M at 35% gross margin. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SCHMID Group's financials are too poor, and pilot-phase adoption does not offset that despite a small revenue increase. It may be worth another look later. x.com 

Schmid may finally have a path to fund growth with operating cash flow and cheap debt instead of new stock, while orders accelerate. Order intake reached €96.6M through August, with a record backlog near €90M and much of it flowing into 2027. Management says it is "pretty well financed", sees no need for new equity for at least six months and has Chinese debt at about 2.7%. It remains a high-risk turnaround: management must convert backlog, lift a 21.2% gross margin and generate cash. x.com 

SCHMID Group's risk-reward does not yet compensate for its capital structure and competitive position, though its AI recovery is real. Up to 104 million diluted shares versus 65 million outstanding, plus €154 million net debt, put it above 60x EV/EBITDA. Ten customers make up 60% of revenue; MKS Instruments leads. It gets more defensible if orders convert as guided, convertibles shrink without new issuance, a tier-one substrate maker enters qualification and no new China export curbs hit. x.com  … Show more

SCHMID Group is too early to invest in, given management's very poor track record and a likely guidance miss, which has now happened. @KairosPraxis sees a genuine inflection after the stock fell about 50% this year: the backlog grew from €27m in 2024 to €107m, debt fell to €23m, and the EBITDA margin cut reflects lower-margin Chinese demand. SCHMID may still do well over a longer horizon. x.com 

SCHMID is the lone European name in AI substrate tooling, over 90% of which ships from Asia, and its plating and wet-process lines feed the advanced-packaging step every AI chip passes through. The June 9 Zhongshan campus deal nearly doubles its regional capacity. It is a speculative flyer only: revenue fell 38% y/y to about €67M, net debt is ~€83M against €4M cash, and losses exceed sales, yet it trades at 5.1x EV/sales. A dilutive raise before the ramp pays off is what kills it. x.com 

Schmid Group is moments from dilution, with almost no room for error in its cash runway. That financial position is critical to any comparison of glass-substrate plays, even as a post the author replies to argues upstream suppliers gain pricing power after Intel's CFO called glass a margin headwind. x.com 

AmpliTech Group remains too risky to own despite a promising backlog. It is highly speculative with a very small market cap, falling year-over-year revenue and dilution, and like many similar speculative companies the open question is whether the backlog converts to revenue in a timely manner. The chart may finally be near support. x.com 

IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com  … Show more

Super Micro Computer's strong demand outlook and revenue growth do not guarantee long-term strength. Margins, capital intensity, supply-chain risks and competition all matter alongside growth. Management has moved past earlier allegations, but sentiment still weighs on the valuation, so the risks deserve as much weight as the growth potential. x.com