Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

US Treasuries remain unattractive despite retail bond-fund buying: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer reports end investors accumulating bond funds, while retail buyers risk becoming exit liquidity before the debt cycle capitulates. Rising debt and debt-supply-led inflation are expected to push long-end yields higher even after the midterms. Junk-credit stress adds to the risk of a wider debt-market selloff, leaving bonds a risky equity-crash hedge. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

US Treasuries face rising yields because the US is running out of willing buyers for its debt. With about $40 trillion of debt and large deficits, foreign governments no longer want to finance America after errant trade policy and poor diplomacy, and capital has better places to go than government bonds. Bondholders have lost a ton in the past year. Higher rates will either curb fiscal bad behavior or create a crisis, since a 5% Treasury cannot last long without a debt spiral. x.com  x.com 

Investment-grade bonds look worse than junk on the charts, with LQD's chart weaker than HYG's. @zerohedge reports Meta's data-center bonds trading down to B2/B levels, a 7.5% yield, despite an A+ rating, as the market calls the bluff on residual value guarantees. @MichaelMOTTCM adds that the high-yield market is sending a warning. x.com  x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

US Treasury and aggregate bonds are risky because rates are more likely to go up than down, whatever their current level. In that scenario, bond math works against holders. Oaktree's Howard Marks argues these are among the lowest rates of the last 50 years, but the direction matters more than the level. x.com 

Long-term Treasury yields keep climbing because investors increasingly doubt America enough to lend to it for 30 years, and nobody can force them to lend cheap. US debt is $40 trillion, interest costs over $1 trillion a year, more than the military, and the deficit is 6% of GDP during a boom. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $4 billion buybacks are fake demand that fixes none of the overspending, a point Stanley Druckenmiller made in his op-ed "Let the Bond Market Speak." x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Treasuries are losing their risk-free appeal as inflation runs hot and US government credibility erodes. If the 10-year projects inflation to surge, bonds that barely beat it make little sense, and Fed hikes won't slow a hot economy or fix an energy supply shock with oil at $100. Higher borrowing costs make the growing debt harder to finance, leading to money printing and more inflation. Big tech is more creditworthy than ever; even for fixed income, Alphabet's corporate debt is preferable. … Show more

Long-duration Treasuries are functionally uninvestable if held to maturity because their real return is negative, a problem for the Fed and Treasury that has Hank Paulson calling a break-the-glass plan inevitable. Marty Bent notes long-end yields look ready to break out, so interest on the debt could surpass Social Security spending sooner than most expect. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries are the real scam, not bitcoin, Tesla, SpaceX or the Magnificent Seven. Investors who dismiss those still buy government bonds, even though the government keeps printing endless money and can only pay them back by printing more. x.com