Vlad Bastion
Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios
Semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks are vulnerable because expectations got too hot and the sector is priced for perfection, not because AI is dead. Even Samsung's record profit failed to calm doubts about how sustainable the AI chip boom is, sending names like Western Digital, Lam Research, Applied Materials and Micron down 5-7% pre-market, as strong earnings became a sell-the-news event. x.comÂ
Ambarella is a high-conviction Buy over 2-3 years as a physical AI and edge robotics platform Wall Street still prices like a legacy camera-chip maker. Its 5nm and 2nm chips carry ASPs well above today's $15, and an $800M+ Hanwha deal over 10+ years adds a baseline near 20% of current scale. Near term there is little reason to get involved before clearer strength: inventory days jumped from 99 to 145, free cash flow was -$29.6M, and the CEO warned DRAM prices may delay Q2 rollouts. x.com x.com … Show more
A shortage of high-power cylindrical battery cells for data-center backup units is emerging, and cell makers are the main beneficiaries. Samsung SDI supplies cells to Simplo, which builds backup battery units for Meta and Amazon, and its output has risen sharply with data-center demand; industry sources say Panasonic and Samsung face supply shortages. Samsung SDI and Panasonic Energy look like the cleanest winners, with Murata and LG Energy Solution next. Not every shortage means a huge market. … Show more
SK hynix sits at the center of every major tech trend from robotics to AI, yet trades at a significant discount even on conservative estimates, offering very favorable risk/reward. Memory remains cyclical, but the floor has moved significantly higher. Even on the 15x terminal multiple @Kennyz8e prefers, fair value would be roughly $210, a 15% annualized return. x.com x.comÂ
Sandisk is cheap, trading at a forward GAAP price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8, despite @JohnTinsmanAOT's criticism that it is expanding production in Japan while Micron commits to building memory in America. x.comÂ
SanDisk is set for sharply higher enterprise SSD pricing. Samsung, SK hynix and SanDisk are believed to expect about 30% quarter-over-quarter eSSD price increases in CY3Q, to roughly 0.45 from about 0.35 in CY2Q. Samsung's floor price in long-term agreements is believed to be above 0.5. x.comÂ
Sandisk now has multi-year visibility from long-term customer contracts, yet trades at an estimated forward P/E of about 9 after falling roughly 45% from its highs. Scarred by 2023's price collapse, Sandisk, Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung are signing multi-year deals with large customer prepayments so buyers can't back out, with much supply sold into 2028 and some into 2029-2030. The market still discounts memory on past cycles, though it now has the most solid revenue base for 3-5 years. x.comÂ
QuantumScape is a poor business, with heavy dilution and self-enriching executives, a clear sign that executive pay is the only way left to make money in a high-capex, low-margin battery business. x.comÂ
Korean stocks face a leverage-driven crash, as more than $30 billion in daily-rebalancing leveraged products tied to Samsung and SK Hynix are forced to sell as prices fall. The two dominate the KOSPI, which has already fallen 25% in a month, and forced selling is feeding more forced selling. Korea has warned first before: its 1997 currency collapse, its chip stocks topping ahead of the 2000 Nasdaq crash and its 2008 breakdown before Lehman. x.comÂ