Kevin Xu
Founder of AfterHour, CEO of Alpha
Nokia deserves the same scarcity premium as Applied Optoelectronics because it makes its own lasers too, per @TheEquityHub. Nvidia's lockup of Lumentum's EML capacity is raising costs and lead times for rivals such as Cisco and Arista, while Nokia's in-house InP fab insulates it and guarantees lead times. Its monolithic photonic chip approach claims 75% power reduction at 3.2Tb/s, and volume production ramps into 2027, when laser scarcity is expected to bite. x.com
Nokia hides an AI infrastructure play that traditional holders, who still see a legacy telco, are missing after the stock round-tripped since its prior report. AI needs vast amounts of fast data, which Nokia's optical networking and new EdgeAI business provide. Nvidia invested $1 billion for about a 3% stake, executives made multi-million-dollar insider buys, and price targets have risen. It is a high-risk, high-reward earnings play, since earnings are a coin flip with an 11.7% implied move. x.com
Nokia's AI and cloud orders are set to turn into revenue, with about half of Q2's EUR 2.8B intake expected to convert over the next 12 months. Its San Jose fab ramps in Q4, Pennsylvania test and packaging capacity expands 10x from Q3, and an NXP Chandler fab lease for indium phosphide chips starts in early 2027, all for demand expected in 2027-28. Nokia targets EUR 2.7-3.2B of comparable operating profit by 2028, up from EUR 2.1-2.6B guided for 2026. x.com
Nokia is a long, not a trade: a telecom giant with a fast-growing AI segment. AI & Cloud revenue rose 105% to €446M in Q2, about 9% of the group, and orders tripled to €2.8B, roughly half converting within 12 months. Optical reached 18% of revenue, lifting a sum-of-parts estimate to about $17.20, and buying NXP's Chandler plant for InP adds capacity. Headline results were weak and capacity constrains supply, so pure-play optical names may move faster near term. x.com x.com
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat despite the selloff makes it one of the most compelling buying opportunities in the market right now. Shares are back at $7.88, nearly 55% below their $17.45 high, after Nvidia invested $1 billion at $6.01 per share in October 2025. x.com
Nokia is being reclassified from a telecom equipment stock to an AI network infrastructure company, breaking through the conglomerate discount that weighs on peers. Its case spans optical, IP routing, data center networking and AI RAN, and Nvidia's $1 billion investment confirmed the strategic value of that four-layer stack. Over a month Nokia rose 56% while similarly integrated Sumitomo fell 5%. Whether the stock is cheap or expensive now depends on valuing each segment against the right peers. … Show more
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
Nokia's story keeps getting better, with a turnaround still in its early stages that recalls Intel's. AI-driven network demand, optical growth, inflecting fundamentals and an expanding defense angle all support it. @BanyanLaneCap adds that as AI rebuilds connectivity, Nokia has many ways to win beyond the next two to three years, with real IP and only a few global competitors. x.com
Nokia offers no quality, growth or value edge, so it fits no portfolio strategy despite its 76% year-to-date rally, and growth potential in its Network Infrastructure segment is relatively modest. x.com
Nokia is one of the cheaper optics-exposed names, at about 11x EV/EBITDA, and is no longer a phone company. Revenue is 57.3% Mobile Infrastructure, 38.4% Network Infrastructure and 7.5% Nokia Technologies, with optical networks within Network Infrastructure growing rapidly after the Infinera acquisition. It runs the only vertically integrated InP semiconductor fab in the West. x.com x.com
