AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
SoFi is in a bear market, with far more resistance above than support below, so hedging beats adding here. Institutions accumulated heavily in the $30s, but retail has sold inefficiently since, and many holders are simply hoping for a pop to sell at breakeven. Owning it back above $30 is preferable to fishing for a bottom. x.comÂ
SoFi's app is poor by the standards of modern financial-services apps, which makes the stock hard to justify owning right now. Investors should know a company's products before investing in it. x.comÂ
SoFi is overvalued because it is just a bank, as it has been since inception. Member growth of 518% over five years while the stock fell 21%, cited by @StockSavvyShay, does not make it an opportunity, since the stock was extremely overvalued five years ago and subscriber growth does not justify the valuation. The fintech sector is trading poorly with little investor interest, so waiting means years of mediocre returns. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's newly reported growth widens the gap between its operating results and a selloff driven by interest-rate fears. Revenue grew 45%, EPS 67% and members 35%, while the stock had fallen nearly 50%; the business is seen as able to succeed across rate environments. x.comÂ
Robinhood offered a much better risk profile than SoFi, with many chances this year to buy it in the $70s and even $60s. SoFi may ultimately work, but its path to execution is less clear, and a piece by nanalyzetweets lays out harsh truths about it that much of X doesn't want to admit. x.comÂ
SoFi has failed to grow or execute, making it a poor choice when better opportunities abound. Founded in 2011, it is worth $24B, while Anthropic, founded in 2021, is valued above $1T. The problem is not that banking is boring, as @TRDRZone suggested, but that SoFi does everything poorly. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's stronger revenue and earnings growth makes it worth staying with for at least another quarter. Per amitisinvesting, Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EPS 64%, with 2027 revenue and EPS guidance above estimates. It still needs to show it can sustain the trajectory. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's egregious dilution means business growth may fail to benefit existing shareholders. Its share count rose 61% over five years, reducing an original 1% stake to about 0.6%; even 61% earnings growth could leave earnings per share flat. As a bank, SoFi is already practically uninvestable by these standards, though dilution need not destroy value if the capital raised creates more value than the ownership surrendered. x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's conservative 2027 guide leaves room to beat expectations, barring a macro shock. Its $6.4B revenue target is 4.2% above consensus and $0.90 EPS target is $0.08 ahead; Q3 revenue grew 44.5% and net margin widened 280 basis points year over year. Cross-selling is gaining traction, management says no capital raise is needed through 2027, and CEO Anthony Noto says he is as confident in durable growth at high rates as at low rates. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's fundamentals are real, but S&P 500 inclusion is not a near-term catalyst, so a quick move to $25-35 from $19 is hopium, not a thesis. Revenue grew 36% and EPS doubled year over year. Yet the index already passed on SoFi in June, its market cap still hovers near the cutoff, and inclusion odds this quarter are about 10%. That answers @kylewhitegoat, who blames hedge fund manipulation and leans on the S&P catalyst. x.comÂ
