Bank of America risks losing its near-free checking deposits if cash agents move idle balances out between paydays. If software forecasts bills and refills checking before they're due, a fat cushion at the bank stops making sense; the bank keeps the customer but loses the cheap deposit. BAC averaged $957B of consumer deposits last quarter, 59% in checking, and paying more to keep cash hurts the spread. Broader transfer authority would speed outflows; for now, watch deposit costs. x.com 

Charles Schwab and Circle Internet Group both look like good shorts, building on @tailrisked's remark: "literally charles schwab rip." x.com 

Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.com 

AI savings agents threaten the deposit spread behind the four largest US banks' profits. Per a Jefferies report, UK firm Riff's agent automatically moves money out of zero-interest accounts; if it scales, such balances could fall 80% and deposit margins from 190 to about 20 basis points, a hit near 80% of major UK bank profits. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup earned $69B of net interest income last quarter, over double their profits. Jefferies calls it 'when, not if'. x.com  … Show more

Palantir could become harder to replace if its account-opening software helps banks bring in deposits faster and becomes part of their daily workflow. Its latest banking deal targets that process, adding a potential retention mechanism to its AI-revenue case. x.com 

Fears that consumer AI agents like Muse will massively accelerate chargebacks, fee disputes and penalty reversals at banks like JPMorgan are overdone. Guardrails will limit what agents can approve autonomously, and higher-risk disputes will be escalated to humans. Agents will make consumers more powerful, not give them an unlimited license to claw money back. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries look unattractive when AI credit pays twice as much and the market assumes the Fed will bail it out if it breaks. Borrowers who don't care what money costs are setting the price for everyone else, so homebuyers pay through higher mortgage rates and small businesses through layoffs. JPMorgan is marketing a $5B Volta AI loan at roughly 11%, per a news post. The Fed has repeatedly protected big banks and is unlikely to let capitalism play out when banks face pain. x.com  … Show more

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs face a negative multiplier effect as worries about the return on AI capital spending start to be priced into tech. After 18 months of enthusiasm about AI spending returns, CNBC Halftime panelists are now finally concerned about its ROIC. That suggests the concern is being discounted in tech prices, which hurts related areas like brokerages that the show's investment committee has embraced. x.com 

NewtekOne has quadrupled deposits in three years, and AI agents should extend that trend rather than stop it. Once consumers set up a trusted agent to move cash, big banks can't stem outflows with small rate bumps. An agent might instead shift cash into CDs at the same bank, which still hurts incumbents' net interest margin. x.com 

Nubank is a good entry again because enough uncertainty is priced in to justify the remaining downside risk. Underwriting and risk-adjusted returns have never been better and keep surprising to the upside, and the loan book is very short-dated. Payroll and secured loans are its next growth wave in Brazil, where it adds 12 million users a year while ARPAC rises. With 40–50%+ ROE and close to 50% revenue growth, it is not out of growth. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com