TrumpGrift Capital
Equity Investing Commentary
US equities are being propped up by Trump jawboning markets with false claims while nothing improves and shortages worsen. He said Iran agreed to give up its enriched uranium, but per @HormuzLetter, Iran directly denied that, with a source close to Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying no nuclear material transfer had been negotiated and no major progress made. Markets should know better and call his bluff. x.comÂ
The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.comÂ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comÂ
The Iran war, rising oil prices and inflationary pressure do not yet look severe enough to trigger a major economic crisis. Despite some deterioration in the macro picture and short-term volatility, the broader picture remains relatively healthy and the long-term outlook for US large-cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks is very positive. x.comÂ
Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.comÂ
US tech stocks look vulnerable to escalation with Iran: @firstadopter reads the 'five days' timing in Trump's Truth Social post as a possible ruse to position troops for more pressure on Iran at the end of the week. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 is following the expected scenario almost on schedule, but whether a dump comes after it breaks above all-time highs depends on what Iran and Trump do. If the Strait of Hormuz is secured, a dump before the midterms is off the table. x.comÂ
US stocks face persistent uncertainty around the midterms through year-end as military-strike risk remains unresolved. Until a strike occurs or a genuine peace deal is signed, the market cannot price that risk confidently. x.comÂ
The prospect of renewed US attacks on Iran sends long-dated Treasuries up this time. HormuzLetter relays Drop Site's report that US forces are positioning for an expected green light to resume attacks. x.comÂ
US equities want to go higher off extreme pessimism. The wall of worry reached DEFCON 1 levels over the past several weeks and the Fear & Greed Index dipped into Extreme Fear, leaving opportunity across beaten-down growth stocks and crypto. If the Iran conflict de-escalates at any point, this is about as strong a setup as any since late March. x.comÂ
Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com x.comÂ