Scott R. Grossman
Founder of Vindico Capital, Consumer-Sector Investor
Lululemon's clothing is cheap, poorly made and overpriced, a problem obvious to anyone who has worn its yoga pants, which makes it a poor investment. x.comÂ
Brands have no moat, only heat cycles, and Lululemon, at new 8-year lows alongside Nike at 12-year lows, is cooling. People will always buy new clothes to look good, but that requires freshness, and another pair of Lululemons no longer delivers it the way it did in 2020. Winning means spotting which stage a brand is in. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon trading at about 7x earnings is absurdly cheap, among the most mispriced stocks around. x.comÂ
Lululemon's problem is its pricing, not a weak consumer. Shoppers are fine but aren't buying its products because the prices no longer make sense, which spells trouble for its margins. x.comÂ
Lululemon is losing customers because it stopped innovating and its brand stance alienated buyers, hurting its own stock as happened with Nike. Shoppers are shifting to Alo, Vuori, Hoka, On and others, and its quality no longer looks as strong. Lululemon shares have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 10 years, per Kalshi. x.comÂ
Lululemon is cheap at around 11x earnings with gross margins above 50%, while many people, including the founder, are pushing for a turnaround. Sales growth is tiny, but the balance sheet is solid and the company makes an interesting acquisition target. The reported collapse of talks with founder Chip Wilson, per WSJ via @DeItaone, looks good for the stock: Wilson may try to take it private or bring in a strategic buyer. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon is no bargain at $99 and an 8x P/E, with revenue shrinking 4% and guidance slashed in two consecutive quarters. x.comÂ
Lululemon looks headed out of business as its customers move to Alo, and another earnings report hammered the stock. Suburban women now wear Alo, at least until they switch to the next shiny brand in a few years, which is why retail apparel is not a long-term investment. x.comÂ
Lululemon is an 800lb gorilla worth defending despite bad management and the politics around its skin-tight leggings. x.comÂ
Lululemon is a stock to avoid around earnings, good or bad, as apparel names almost always are. Too many investors were fooled by its compounder story coming out of Covid. x.comÂ