Qualcomm could surge 25-30% this month after striking an AI chip deal with TikTok owner ByteDance. A buyer put $3.3M into June 18 $320 calls after the news, betting on a 30% rise in about two weeks. x.com
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Thematic Research, Technical/Macro/Fundamental Analysis & Quantitative Positioning
AI demand could drive a big run in Broadcom, IREN, Oracle, Qualcomm, Nokia and Vistra. IREN's 2 GW of uncontracted power gives it massive upside potential; Vistra's roughly 3.8 GW of Meta and Amazon agreements position it for data-center power demand. Broadcom supplies custom AI chips and networking; Oracle has $664B in backlog and a $300B OpenAI deal; Qualcomm is one of tech's most undervalued names with CPU, physical-AI and data-center exposure; Nokia is essential to AI networking. x.com x.com … Show more
Qualcomm's growth is broadening beyond phones into autos, IoT and data-center AI. Auto revenue grew 61%, IoT is climbing and its AI200/250 data-center push uses memory-hungry designs. The weekly chart shows a breakout candle right under a huge volume shelf at $172. x.com
Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.com
Qualcomm's investor day strengthened the long case, as its CFO raised FY2029 non-handset revenue guidance 91% to $40B. Qualcomm disclosed major orders from two hyperscalers, said its Dragonfly C1000 data-center CPU launches in mid-2028 with Meta among the first customers, introduced the AI300 accelerator and data-center interconnect, and expects $6B of annualized automotive revenue in FY2026. It also agreed to buy AI software firm Modular for $3.9B. x.com
Qualcomm's AI data center upside is not priced in, and a deal with AWS worth up to $60B would quickly change its $15B AI chip plan. Qualcomm and Amazon agreed a multi-generation collaboration on custom silicon for AI inference and optical connectivity. Per @PatrickMoorhead, payments of up to $60B fall under a warrant framework granting Amazon up to 25 million Qualcomm shares, about 2.4% of the company. Amazon revenue starts in the December quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Qualcomm stays a Hold, with the target cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-to-mid-term data-center visibility. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $9.7-10.5B fell short of buy-side chatter near $11B; Android faces elevated wafer inventories and Apple modem revenue is falling faster than expected. Data-center targets of $5B in FY27 and $15B+ in FY29 were reaffirmed and AI250 has four major US cloud customers, but high LPDDR5 prices hurt its competitiveness, and CPUs are years off. … Show more
Qualcomm's custom ASIC deal with ByteDance could double the stock. Beyond being gigantic, the deal opens the Chinese market and works around AI chip restrictions, because Qualcomm helps design the chip and collects licensing fees rather than building and shipping it. That makes Qualcomm preferable to Broadcom right now and one of the lower-valuation semiconductor names to buy on dips. x.com
Qualcomm looks undervalued among tech stocks given its opportunities in physical AI, CPUs and an emerging data-center market. x.com
Qualcomm has little downside with Amazon having come in as an investor at around $160 a share. Investors give it almost no credit for AI, wearables, robotics and auto, and those businesses can do the heavy lifting to keep the stock steady next year. x.com
Qualcomm is shifting from handset supplier to AI infrastructure platform, which should shrink its handset discount. At its June 24 investor day it targeted data center revenue rising from $0.3 billion in fiscal 2026 to over $15 billion by 2029, with the Dragonfly C1000 CPU and AI300 inference accelerator. Micron's results show insatiable AI memory demand that its efficient compute can serve. At about 21x forward earnings versus 30-50x for AI pure plays, a 12-month target of $325 is justified. … Show more