Macro_Lin
Semiconductor Analyst, AI Chip Design, Ex-Quant/Portfolio Manager
Google and MediaTek would be among the first major external customers for Intel's EMIB-T packaging, a critical commercial validation for Intel Foundry. MediaTek appears all in on ASICs for Google, and per @jukan05, former TSMC packaging VP Douglas Yu has joined MediaTek, easing the risks of first adopting EMIB-T, while it looks hard for TSMC to reclaim the TPU v9 packaging order. x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel looks a tad overvalued near $100, so it is not a buy right now, even though its fundamentals are strong. It is state-backed, demand is so high that lower-grade chips are sold rather than discarded, and its downstream stack, including EMIB packaging, is the strongest in about a decade, possibly outpacing its foundry business per Morgan Stanley reporting. x.comÂ
Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's weak guidance undermines the turnaround bet. The whole turnaround now looks like a scam, though the view will be reassessed later. x.com x.comÂ
Advanced packaging is where the new Moore's law lies, and Intel's EMIB is becoming a major business. Per Digitimes, cited by @pequityresearch, the first TPU using EMIB has met yield standards, making it significantly more likely that future TPU generations keep using it. A quoted assessment calls EMIB a multi-billion-dollar-per-customer business with 30% operating margins and phenomenal ROIC, now headed by SK hynix's former CEO. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's recovery looks fragile because PC softness could persist through at least the first half of 2027. Management's weak Q4 outlook suggests the pressure may outlast one disappointing forecast. x.comÂ
Intel looks expensive even against sales despite its earlier revenue recovery: at 10x sales versus roughly 5x for chipmakers, the screen puts fair value at $40.45-$51.48 against $104.70. This adds a sales-based valuation warning to the prior earnings concern; it is a levels-only comparison using reported figures, not fundamental diligence. x.comÂ
Intel's EMIB-T packaging could reaccelerate now that the root causes of substrate yields around 45-50% have been identified. Momentum for EMIB-T is rising for Google's TPU v10, supporting the mid- to long-term positive view despite the v9 timing slip. x.comÂ
Intel is overvalued after running up about 5x from $20, with more capex, low operating margins and a run-up driven largely by Trump's promotion rather than fundamentals. TSMC earns over 30% operating margins and is ahead of schedule in Arizona, so Intel has no US fab monopoly. Trump leaves office in two years, and these fabs are unlikely to meaningfully improve on existing 2nm yields. It could still be a great trade. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ