Macro_Lin
Semiconductor Analyst, AI Chip Design, Ex-Quant/Portfolio Manager
ASMPT is likely to become CXMT's alternative thermocompression bonding supplier after Korea's Hanmi suspended shipments to China. Its main TCB customer today is SK hynix, while Micron has excluded it on geopolitical grounds in favor of BESI, and reports say ASMPT has been in contact with Chinese HBM customers, most likely CXMT. x.com
ASMPT is winning share in HBM thermocompression bonding: it has quickly taken about half of SK hynix's TCB tool supply from former sole supplier Hanmi, which is in a patent fight with Hanwha. TCB stays relevant through HBM4 because JEDEC relaxed the height standard from 720μm to 775μm, giving bump-based stacking another generation before hybrid bonding. Micron is reportedly moving fully to BESI and unlikely to use ASMPT for geopolitical reasons, and ASMPT is only in qualification at Samsung. x.com x.com
HBM advances are creating strong, durable moats and long-term pricing power for Micron and SK hynix. x.com
ASMPT should outperform BE Semiconductor over the next two years because hybrid bonding for HBM has slipped toward 2028, keeping older bonding in use longer. At Hot Chips 2026, SK hynix signaled it will extend MR-MUF through 16-high HBM4; per Yole, wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding arrives around 2028. ASMPT specializes in the conventional bonding that is sticking around; BESI loses its main near-term driver. BESI is no slam-dunk short, since Intel's Diamond Rapids uses hybrid bonding in chiplets. … Show more
ASMPT is not a buy because almost everything is already priced in, and its prized AMICRA unit is too small to change that. AMICRA builds arguably the world's most precise die bonders for photonic packaging, critical to the co-packaged optics ramp, with an estimated 40-50% share per industry consensus. But photonics is still under 10% of ASMPT's HKD 14.5 billion revenue, and the market has long since absorbed the TCB, HBM and CPO optimism. x.com x.com x.com
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.com
Buying the DRAM dip looks too risky now because CXMT's ambitious next-generation 4F plan and SK hynix's aggressive production expansion raise supply concerns for memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix and Samsung. CXMT is unlikely to become a serious competitive threat, but it could still weigh on storage-stock sentiment. x.com x.com
Tight memory supply keeps the AI memory supplier trade in bill-of-materials names if it persists. The investor aleabitoreddit reports an SK hynix shortage outlook through 2030 and an operating-margin result near 80%. HBM allocation and average-selling-price guidance are the next tests; Korea has already priced the earnings print, so the next move depends on who locks capacity. x.com
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.com
Memory prices look to be at their peak for SK hynix and Micron as Chinese commoditization catches up. CXMT has made HBM3E and is now only one generation from HBM4, so China will scale its own DRAM and HBM production. Over several years, supply and innovation have always caught up with demand in past cycles, and US work on memory architectures that work around HBM or use less of it is already well underway. That contradicts @jukan05's reading that CXMT's progress tightens commodity DRAM. x.com … Show more
Applied Materials' larger stake in BE Semiconductor points to long-term hybrid-bonding potential despite delayed adoption in HBM. Applied agreed to raise its BESI holding from 9% to about 20%; HBM adoption timelines may not reflect the prospects for the technology as a whole. x.com x.com
