Scott R. Grossman
Founder of Vindico Capital, Consumer-Sector Investor
Netflix is a buy for investors with duration who are also short media, because streaming competition is retreating faster. HBO is set to be folded into Paramount, a deal in limbo, and Disney's streaming is struggling. Not necessarily a screaming buy: skepticism about the streaming flywheel makes sense, and a post the author replies to, called spot on, notes incremental margins fell to 28% from 36% as tech spend rose 22%, with live sports and short-form risking slower operating leverage. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. … Show more
Netflix is very underappreciated for the next 3-5 years. Production costs should come down massively, it has market-leading distribution, and dynamic content and gaming expand what it offers. It could also act as a hedge if AI eventually leads to widespread layoffs. x.com
Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.com
Netflix's problems are solvable while it prints money, making the stock a bargain at this price with a huge moat and great franchise. Its strategy should include more movies in theaters, sports only at a reasonable cost, a fixed ad business, and buying Take-Two to own a game studio and IP; GTA6 is a huge opportunity to connect with younger viewers and run ads in-game. x.com x.com
Netflix's incredibly solid business and already-corrected stock offer great protection if the market crashes. x.com
If Netflix's engagement keeps declining, it will be able to charge less over the long term even if reduced use has not stopped subscriptions yet. Netflix's discoverability is terrible; it keeps showing the same options. x.com x.com
Netflix's ad tier can improve its long-run economics while the stock prices in decline. It is the second most-watched platform on US TV behind YouTube; ad-tier members pay subscriptions and generate ad revenue, with room to improve fill and pricing. Revenue growth, margins and buybacks underpin an Overweight rating and $103 target, 46% upside at the preview price. The quarter was solid, but the soft Q4 guide and ad forecast cut from $3B to ~$2.7B are setbacks the author sees as fixable. x.com … Show more
Netflix may be the highest-quality place for a company to advertise, setting it up for a massive comeback. Its ads run while viewers are already committed to their screens and are short enough that they don't look away. @joecarlsonshow ranks Netflix among the stocks least exposed to AI shopping agents, since it never relied on low friction. x.com
Netflix's stock and content quality look poor, pointing to a slow grind lower. x.com
Netflix's maturity is real, but the market may be underestimating the value it can still create through advertising, monetization and operating leverage. It still grows revenue at a double-digit rate with margins above 30%, yet the stock is down more than 40% from its June 2025 peak. The worry is that viewing hours grew only about 2% and competition now includes YouTube, TikTok and gaming, leaving pricing, paid sharing and ads to carry growth. x.com