Leandro
Equity Analyst at Best Anchor Stocks
Texas Instruments' lower-than-expected Q2 capex is no cause for panic: it built capacity aggressively ahead of the cycle and should now get capex leverage. Management confirmed its FY26 capex band, said it won't anchor to the low end and hinted at more capex plans after 2029. Zerohedge flagged Q2 capex of $514 million versus $676.3 million expected. It is textbook capital allocation and a case study in the importance of investment horizons. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Texas Instruments' much-criticized high inventory and capacity expansion may now help it gain share through the analog chip shortage. Analog semis, called dead a few months ago when the stocks sat at 52-week lows, are mostly at all-time highs, increasingly seen as bottlenecks and as main beneficiaries of the robotics era. Optimizing for short-term metrics is not always best. x.comÂ
Texas Instruments is pushing ahead with further price increases, part of a second round of hikes across analog and power chipmakers, per @Omercheema. x.comÂ
Texas Instruments could command a P/E in the high 20s for FY2026, given strong EPS guidance of about $2 and a very bullish backdrop for microcontrollers, power electronics such as GaN and DC/DC, and analog chips for the AI data-center ramp. x.comÂ
Texas Instruments looks expensive as a $260 billion chipmaker trading at about 50 times earnings while earning only $1.5 billion this quarter. x.comÂ
Analog is back, and Texas Instruments can reach $350 or more after great earnings and guidance. The stock printed a "god candle" on the results, and the bigger the base, the higher it can go. A post the author quotes says Texas Instruments leads with a 20% share of the analog market and is attempting a five-year base breakout with strong accumulation. x.comÂ
Texas Instruments and Microchip are breaking out of years of hibernation as a microcontroller shortage pulls the chip sector up. Both went nowhere for 3-5 years yet now top the S&P 500 on momentum scores, a pattern that signals something has changed. x.comÂ
Analog and power semiconductor stocks such as ON Semiconductor, Texas Instruments and NXP are pricing far ahead of their fundamentals. Even with price hikes they are not back to 2022 revenue, yet their share prices have risen multifold. The semiconductor supercycle is lifting even these laggards. x.com x.comÂ
TSMC's capacity-constrained growth is holding margins through its costly 2nm ramp. Its Q4 revenue guide of $52.3-54.3B beats $49B consensus, implying 14% sequential growth, with 65-67% gross-margin guidance; planned Q4 capex is $19-23B versus $13.8B last quarter. World Trade Securities maintains Overweight and a $620 target. TSMC is also in talks to run Elon Musk's proposed Texas Terafab; additional fab and equipment demand depends on a deal. x.com x.comÂ
Lam Research's record results suggest the equipment cycle is not ending despite its stock selloff. Revenue reached $8.22B, up 54% year over year and over 20% sequentially, while EPS rose 75%; ASML and TSMC also report customers needing more tools. Overweight with a $355 target and 35% upside, but the selloff is a gift only if Lam guides December higher. x.com x.comÂ
Analog semiconductor stocks such as STMicroelectronics, Tower Semiconductor, Analog Devices and Texas Instruments are set to rise further because they are starting to have pricing power for the first time in a long time. x.comÂ
Intel's 25% growth is weak for the hottest semiconductor market ever, especially after the stock rose 5x in a year. It came against a prior-year quarter with 0% growth, while Texas Instruments grew 23% on a 13% comparison and AMD should grow above 50% on a 32% comparison. Calling it a huge beat misses that the business looks dead. x.com x.comÂ
