Life insurers such as F&G Annuities & Life are carrying very large unrealized bond losses in accumulated other comprehensive income as yields rise. If they ever need to sell bonds early, things could get very ugly, and many also hold a decent amount of private credit. x.com 

Property and casualty insurers such as W.R. Berkley should benefit as rates stay higher for longer, because their short-duration insurance float reprices higher, as in the 2022 hiking cycle. The Fed just hiked for the first time in over three years, while drone strikes shut Saudi Arabia's Petroline, which moved about 4 million barrels a day, sending Brent up 8.7% to $104.61 and the 10-year yield to 4.97%. That is a structural repricing of energy risk, and rate-cut bets will get run over. x.com 

Rocket Companies is set up to benefit from a short-term bond bounce that would bring down long-end yields. Pension funds' quarterly rebalancing this week should buy bonds and sell stocks, and a 70% priced probability of an October hike leaves room for a bounce. A dovish PCE surprise, which BofA said might come from a methodology change, would add support. Rocket's weekly chart shows a good entry point, and the MOVE bond-volatility index has started to retrace, a good sign. x.com  x.com 

US large-cap stocks are not oversold, and inflation is likely to drag them lower after crushing momentum names, as in 2022. They just posted one of the most dramatic blow-off tops since Covid while the Fed is hawkish, Brent is at $100 and the 10-year yield is 4.70%. With the S&P 500 just 3% off its highs, a Fed put is not near and is unlikely at $100 Brent. Assuming the broad market is safe because high-duration momentum already sold off is a huge mistake. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-duration US government bonds like EDV could roughly triple once stocks go down again. That is the 60/40 premise: rebalance toward bonds now and there is more cushion whenever stocks invariably fall. Calls could pay more, but the timeline for this playing out is uncertain. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries look like a good hedge against rising rates, which at some point could crash the stock market. Duration on the 20-year Treasury has come way down, so another 100 basis points higher in yields would mean about an 11% price decline, or roughly a -5% total return. That is small compared with the decline equities could suffer. x.com 

Short volatility should work from here, because even if volatility spikes, the spike would be followed by several days of falling volatility. x.com 

Low-volatility and yield-replacement stocks are falling because rising bond yields make Treasuries a better source of income. Utilities, staples, health care and real estate drop when rates rise, so low-volatility names that usually outperform in turbulent markets are underperforming. Unusually, long Treasuries are falling as the VIX rises, unlike 2008 or 2020, because financing the war is increasing deficits. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's refusal to fall despite an ugly macro setup suggests far more sidelined liquidity and risk appetite than headlines imply. BTC reclaimed $80K even as the 10-year yield moved back toward 5%, the Fed hiked 25 bp and the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate; regulatory progress and ETF inflows don't fully explain it. The market may already be looking past tightening. The key question is whether Kevin Warsh's Fed pauses after this hike, signaling conditions have stopped tightening. x.com 

Bonds may be the biggest bubble of our lifetime as the 39-year bond bull market looks over, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5%. From the 1981 peak near 15% to the 2020 low near 0.5%, falling rates became the assumption that passive investing, long-duration growth and the 60/40 portfolio were built on. Yields have moved in multi-decade rises and falls before, and the unwind has barely started, though history is not a timetable. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com