3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
Rocket Companies is set up to benefit from a short-term bond bounce that would bring down long-end yields. Pension funds' quarterly rebalancing this week should buy bonds and sell stocks, and a 70% priced probability of an October hike leaves room for a bounce. A dovish PCE surprise, which BofA said might come from a methodology change, would add support. Rocket's weekly chart shows a good entry point, and the MOVE bond-volatility index has started to retrace, a good sign. x.com x.com
US homebuilders and Rocket Companies should benefit because Warsh's commitment to bring inflation down to 2.0% and the strong Fed independence shown yesterday should keep long-end bond yields stable or falling. That corrects an earlier read that the bear-flattening yield curve and strong dollar were bearish for rate-sensitive sectors such as homebuilders. x.com
As the AI infrastructure crash takes form, its recessionary effect suppresses bond issuance and powerfully caps yields, giving battered housing, mortgage and related stocks a lift. Starwood Property Trust, Rocket Companies and Builders FirstSource should get a powerful boost as yields fall, with huge short covering and fundamental improvement; many in the group trade well below book value. x.com x.com x.com
The market looks further ahead than today's weak housing conditions, so Rocket Companies and Zillow look bottomed. Both appear poised for big runs despite how bad the housing market remains. x.com
Rocket Companies is uninvestable while the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates keep rising. It could be worth owning when the time is right, but it is still too early. x.com
Rocket Companies is waking up as rates become friendlier. It sits at its 100-day moving average with room to the high $16s if the yield move continues, and $20 by year end would not be a shock. A reply calls it possibly the play of the year. x.com x.com
Rocket Companies is worth buying before the housing cycle turns, meaning the rate of deterioration shifts to a firm bottom and maybe improvement rather than a strong rebound. Housing is in an odd spot for a recovery call. Per investor institLPGP, Rocket is taking share, over-earning on its mortgage servicing book while it waits, and already cutting costs with AI, leaving its long-term earnings power far higher. x.com x.com
Rocket Companies looks expensive against its prior trough: its $34B market cap is about a 25% premium to the $22-27B midpoint for Rocket plus Mr. Cooper at the last rate peak. Long-term earnings power should improve as it takes origination share and refinancing demand returns when rates fall, and Mr. Cooper's servicing book is minting cash. But servicing hedges, rate-volatility sensitivity and falling purchase volumes are uncertain, so adding only makes sense about 20% lower. x.com x.com
Rocket Companies' underlying platform is worth far more than its price, which looks like under 10x earnings power. Its mortgage servicing rights are exposed to rate hikes and credit, and the stock swings with rates, but management can largely shape earnings. @BoxLongs sees a big TAM and notes ValueAct's involvement, with the rate-driven selloff a reload point, though a sharp market drop could take it to $10-12. x.com x.com
Rocket Companies is positioned for higher mortgage volume as housing loosens and rates may ease. Inventory is up about 5.6% year over year with more flexible sellers, giving purchase originations a runway Rocket's digital scale can absorb. April to June is peak home-sales season, when its fast-close platform is an edge. With rates at 6-6.5% and the MBA projecting about 5.9% by Q4, a dip would reopen refinancing, Rocket's specialty. The median Wall Street target of $22 implies about 55% upside. … Show more
Real estate stocks such as Rocket Companies, Zillow and Builders FirstSource will struggle to recover strongly until housing turnover increases. One possible offset: once rate hikes start, probably in September, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates could tick down. x.com
Long-dated US Treasuries look like a good hedge against rising rates, which at some point could crash the stock market. Duration on the 20-year Treasury has come way down, so another 100 basis points higher in yields would mean about an 11% price decline, or roughly a -5% total return. That is small compared with the decline equities could suffer. x.com
