Andy Heilman
Principal Owner of MH & Associates
Hecla remains longer-term bullish as it builds a base, with no reason yet to turn bearish on the weekly chart. It stays well above a rising 30-week EMA; it need not reach $25 next month but should not fall much below $16-$17. High diesel prices are a real headwind for miners, hitting the bottom line directly, so silver must outpace oil or diesel to keep profitability steady. The weekly view could change by the end of the week. x.comÂ
Hecla Mining is moving from build-out to free-cash-flow harvesting, giving debt-free leverage to silver. It redeemed its remaining $263 million of senior bonds, leaving it effectively debt-free. Despite lower gold and silver prices, second-quarter free cash flow more than doubled to $136 million, with record quarters at Greens Creek and Lucky Friday. Exploration expanded Keno Hill's high-grade zones and found new veins at Midas. Some analysts see about 40% undervaluation after a 20% pullback. … Show more
Hecla Mining's real move should come in 2027 as silver demand keeps outgrowing supply. Nvidia's Vera Rubin uses 50% more silver than Blackwell, and 2027 will be the seventh straight year of silver deficit. Hecla is debt free, and its Greens Creek tailings are still not appreciated. x.com x.comÂ
Mining stocks such as Hecla are undervalued and more exciting than the popular optics, memory and packaging trades, because most miners have profit margins about 1.5-2x those of leading tech players. Hecla sits at +42% in 2026 against about 25% for Lumentum. This is not bearish on tech, but investors without miner exposure may soon wish they had it. x.comÂ
J.B. Hunt, a best-in-class trucking business, appears to have run out of the pricing power needed to pass high diesel costs on to customers. It announced an earnings drop of 5% to 10% because of rising fuel costs. Diesel is approaching $7 a gallon, which is more bearish than the recent move in yields, with consumers and businesses paying roughly $700M more a day for fuel than a year ago. x.comÂ
Silver, copper and uranium are durable commodity plays for the next decade. Silver, including Contango Ore and Hecla Mining, is the most conductive metal for AI hardware and about 80% is mined as a by-product, while the dollar index fell 2.4% this month and M2 rose about 5% in three months. Copper, including Trilogy Metals, faces a forecast 10 million tonne gap by 2040. Uranium, including Denison Mines and Centrus Energy, leads a nuclear revival after 12 flat years, with $50B from hyperscalers. … Show more
Gold miners have not yet priced in what record gold prices mean for the sector, and the window to get in is shrinking. Newmont beat Q1 profit estimates even though output fell, showing the gold price tailwind is covering operational shortfalls; earnings should rise further when production normalizes. The majors have pricing power they have not had in years and operating leverage is building, while most investors remain in tech. x.com x.comÂ
Steel is in a strong bull market since the tariff-panic lows, driven by strong demand and a weakening US dollar. All metals are moving higher, though miners are hampered by higher oil prices. x.comÂ
Gold miners look like most of the damage is done: gold is down over $1,500 from its top and miners about 40%, with sentiment and positioning near capitulation. Gold's Daily Sentiment Index fell to 14% bullish, speculative open interest is below the late-2015 bottom, the miners' bullish percent index hit 0% and gold's RSI is the lowest since October 2023. Gold could still fall on Hormuz, dollar strength and seasonality, but Chinese buying, de-dollarization and miners' cash flows remain. x.comÂ
Gold miners have further to fall because gold is acting as just another risk asset. Rising oil, rising yields and a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, silver and the precious-metal miners. x.com x.comÂ