qinbafrank
AI/Crypto/TMT Investor, Global Liquidity & Macro, Cycle-Based Investing
Central-bank selling of gold is spreading beyond Poland: Turkey's central bank is preparing to use its gold reserves to stabilize its exchange rate. That fits the view that central banks, the main driver of gold's three-year rally, are turning from buyers into sellers. Global central-bank buying fell to 5 tonnes in January 2026 from a 2025 average above 70 tonnes a month, and CICC has published a report titled "Don't overestimate global central banks' motivation to buy gold." x.comÂ
Gold's biggest driver, central bank buying, has collapsed in 2026, leaving the metal looking tired. Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes a year in 2022-24 and about 70 tonnes a month in 2025, but only 5 tonnes in January; China's purchases fell to 0.93 tonnes in February. Prices are likely too high for them to see value. Poland plans to sell some gold for defense spending, possibly a wider trend. The Iran oil spike also raises inflation risk and weighs on rate-cut hopes. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is now pricing stagflation, and a Fed caught in a policy bind is the most favorable setup for it. After the war began on February 28, a liquidity shock hit gold with everything else, then haven buying returned as the conflict looked prolonged. Near 4,550, inflation expectations are at 3.8% while growth slows. The risk is that central-bank buying, the bull market's key driver, fades: Turkey used about 60 tonnes in two weeks to defend the lira, and war costs could force others to sell. x.com … Show more
Gold tends to give back geopolitical spikes because it moves on real rates and the dollar, not missiles. The pattern repeats: a shock sends retail into gold, rates rise to fight inflation, and gold gives it back as smart money sells into retail fear, as with Ukraine in 2022 and at least three times in recent years. Per @KobeissiLetter, gold has erased $7.3 trillion of market cap since the Iran war began. Buying gold out of fear isn't a hedge but exit liquidity. x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Central-bank stockpiling adds demand for gold amid market weakness. WatcherGuru, citing Fortune, reports central banks buying four times more gold than usual and moving it out of the US. Similar silver buying is suspected, not established; both metals remain favored. x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.comÂ
Record central-bank buying supports gold. Gold now accounts for over 20% of central-bank reserves, near a multidecade high; notice the trend and adjust accordingly. x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
