Galaxy Digital's $7.6B market cap assigns essentially no value to its Helios data-center business. x.comÂ
Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Galaxy Digital may be the market's most undervalued stock because its $6.5B value overlooks Helios I's contracted rent and $6.6B in cash, Treasuries, digital assets and investments. Its first full Helios I Phase I quarter delivered $69M of data-center adjusted EBITDA. Novogratz said Galaxy rejected a Helios II lease as power tightened; a higher-priced tenant is still prospective. Galaxy expects $800-850M in annualized leasing by end-2027, and the stock should quickly reach $30+ by year-end. … Show more
Galaxy Digital is shifting from a pure crypto play to an AI data center stock, which could earn it a tech valuation and insulate it from crypto swings. It is repurposing low-cost mining power at its 1.6 GW Helios campus in Texas into high-margin AI and HPC capacity. Its full digital asset business, from trading and advisory to asset management, staking and tokenization, collects tolls from institutions entering crypto. Mark-to-market swings had pushed its price-to-sales ratio near 0.07. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital is in no man's land as a stock for now. Its core trading business probably breaks even, worth maybe $5 a share, its CoreWeave HPC deal still has a long ramp before cash flows arrive, and its approved Texas capacity has only 50/50 odds of getting power assigned, so hyperscalers won't commit. That tempers @SimonSaysBTC's math on Helios, including about $1.2B of annual revenue from the 800 MW CoreWeave contract. x.comÂ
Reduced perceived CoreWeave credit risk and a fully ramped lease would support a higher valuation for Galaxy Digital. A $50 share price in 18 months seems reasonable if the CoreWeave lease reaches $1B+ of EBITDA and the first phase of an 830MW lease to a new investment-grade tenant is online by mid-2028, adding $200M-$300M of EBITDA. Further leases and execution at other sites, a crypto bull market and recurring digital-asset licensing revenue could take it much higher. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's Helios leases are becoming operating capacity, supporting its AI infrastructure opportunity alongside institutional digital assets. It has delivered 133 MW of critical IT capacity to CoreWeave and contracted 526 MW across three 15-year phases, with about $1 billion in anticipated annual lease revenue once fully delivered. CoreWeave's widening credit spreads and Galaxy's exposure to that customer remain risks; a breakout above resistance in the $30s is still conditional. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's public shares deserve a discount because its Up-C structure leaves insiders in control while public common holds less than half the enterprise's economics. Insiders take tax savings through the Tax Receivable Agreement, and an early buyout of it at $30 could cost the company about $1 billion, as could a Helios spin-off. Combined with crypto volatility, time to power and its revealed cost of debt, a discount is warranted, though its size is debatable. x.com x.comÂ
None of Galaxy Digital's acquisitions are priced in. That is the biggest alpha in the Morgan Stanley report on powered-shell data-center names shared by @PSInvestor. Per that post, Morgan Stanley expects a wave of new AI data-center leases by October as power shortages intensify, and existing contracts alone already value peers TeraWulf and Cipher above their share prices. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital and Core Scientific should outperform Applied Digital over the next five years; buying Applied Digital now because it has surged looks foolish. A year ago it was a near-bankrupt bitcoin miner; it has since signed 900MW of colocation deals, a levered, lower-quality business rallying on an industry trend, like Intel versus Nvidia. Galaxy's profitable digital-assets arm and Core Scientific's earlier deals meant no bankruptcy risk was priced in, so they lagged. This could be wrong. … Show more
Galaxy Digital faces structural selling pressure because it needs equity financing, and Mike Novogratz knows it. A single raise to institutions obliterated the stock, while IREN absorbs regular ATM sales easily. The market dislikes the crypto part of the business and, more importantly, has no confidence that a team of crypto executives can pull off a data center build-out. That follows a new filing flagged in a post the author replies to. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's emerging AI infrastructure business is the real story, yet most investors still see it as a crypto company, leaving the disconnect rarely wider. It is developing 1.6 GW of data center capacity, and CoreWeave is a key part of the thesis, adding another layer of upside. An announcement of a signed data center tenant could be a near-term catalyst. It is a buy on every pullback. x.comÂ