Nicolas Flamel
Galaxy Digital Investment Commentary
None of Galaxy Digital's acquisitions are priced in. That is the biggest alpha in the Morgan Stanley report on powered-shell data-center names shared by @PSInvestor. Per that post, Morgan Stanley expects a wave of new AI data-center leases by October as power shortages intensify, and existing contracts alone already value peers TeraWulf and Cipher above their share prices. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's Etched stake could become a massive win, potentially worth more than Galaxy itself. Galaxy invested $3M from its balance sheet; Mike Novogratz valued the position at $60M on June 6, when Etched was worth $5B, and Etched is now valued at $21B. If Etched became a $1T company, the stake could be worth about $10B, above Galaxy's entire market cap, though dilution and trimming along the way are likely. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Scarce power available for 2028 delivery and rising demand for that capacity favor Galaxy Digital, IREN and Cipher Mining. XCapitalMgmt highlights Galaxy management's report of delayed competing projects, stronger demand from hyperscalers and AI firms for 2028 capacity, and more selective financing. Galaxy has over 800 MW secured at Helios II but is still evaluating tenants and deal terms. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital may be the market's most undervalued stock because its $6.5B value overlooks Helios I's contracted rent and $6.6B in cash, Treasuries, digital assets and investments. Its first full Helios I Phase I quarter delivered $69M of data-center adjusted EBITDA. Novogratz said Galaxy rejected a Helios II lease as power tightened; a higher-priced tenant is still prospective. Galaxy expects $800-850M in annualized leasing by end-2027, and the stock should quickly reach $30+ by year-end. … Show more
Galaxy Digital is in no man's land as a stock for now. Its core trading business probably breaks even, worth maybe $5 a share, its CoreWeave HPC deal still has a long ramp before cash flows arrive, and its approved Texas capacity has only 50/50 odds of getting power assigned, so hyperscalers won't commit. That tempers @SimonSaysBTC's math on Helios, including about $1.2B of annual revenue from the 800 MW CoreWeave contract. x.comÂ
Reduced perceived CoreWeave credit risk and a fully ramped lease would support a higher valuation for Galaxy Digital. A $50 share price in 18 months seems reasonable if the CoreWeave lease reaches $1B+ of EBITDA and the first phase of an 830MW lease to a new investment-grade tenant is online by mid-2028, adding $200M-$300M of EBITDA. Further leases and execution at other sites, a crypto bull market and recurring digital-asset licensing revenue could take it much higher. x.comÂ
Confirmed base-load ERCOT sites, such as CleanSpark's 585 MW at Sealy and Brazoria Phase I and Galaxy's 830 MW Helios II, gain value because less capacity than expected won base-load status in Batch Zero. New capacity likely will not be approved for 8+ months, so developers' leverage with tenants should rise and attractive base-load leases look likely. Some CleanSpark and Galaxy capacity got only studied-load status. Cipher's silence is hard to read as anything but ominous. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's public shares deserve a discount because its Up-C structure leaves insiders in control while public common holds less than half the enterprise's economics. Insiders take tax savings through the Tax Receivable Agreement, and an early buyout of it at $30 could cost the company about $1 billion, as could a Helios spin-off. Combined with crypto volatility, time to power and its revealed cost of debt, a discount is warranted, though its size is debatable. x.com x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's Helios leases are becoming operating capacity, supporting its AI infrastructure opportunity alongside institutional digital assets. It has delivered 133 MW of critical IT capacity to CoreWeave and contracted 526 MW across three 15-year phases, with about $1 billion in anticipated annual lease revenue once fully delivered. CoreWeave's widening credit spreads and Galaxy's exposure to that customer remain risks; a breakout above resistance in the $30s is still conditional. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital is shifting from a pure crypto play to an AI data center stock, which could earn it a tech valuation and insulate it from crypto swings. It is repurposing low-cost mining power at its 1.6 GW Helios campus in Texas into high-margin AI and HPC capacity. Its full digital asset business, from trading and advisory to asset management, staking and tokenization, collects tolls from institutions entering crypto. Mark-to-market swings had pushed its price-to-sales ratio near 0.07. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital faces structural selling pressure because it needs equity financing, and Mike Novogratz knows it. A single raise to institutions obliterated the stock, while IREN absorbs regular ATM sales easily. The market dislikes the crypto part of the business and, more importantly, has no confidence that a team of crypto executives can pull off a data center build-out. That follows a new filing flagged in a post the author replies to. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's $7.6B market cap assigns essentially no value to its Helios data-center business. x.comÂ
