Trevor Scott
Founder & Portfolio Manager of Tidefall Capital Management
Celsius looks unattractive because its moats are thin and it does not control the supply chain that matters for its business. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 32% year over year and the stock is down 32% to a 52-week low since its Alani Nu acquisition rally. A better P/E would be needed to make it interesting. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's core brand is shrinking and further distribution gains look limited, making it a worse bet than DoorDash. Q2 revenue of $817.9M and adjusted EPS of 36c missed estimates, and organic growth excluding Rockstar was just 2% versus 9% expected, as brand Celsius fell 12% while Alani Nu grew 22%. Management offered little sign of a turnaround, and with the PepsiCo deal four years old, new c-store gains are likely limited. Celsius manages at best 5% organic growth at 16x 2026 earnings. x.comÂ
Celsius increasingly looks like a mature beverage business rather than a hypergrowth story, after a big miss on earnings and revenue. Sales grew just 10%, with growth expected around that level next year, and it is unclear whether this is temporary execution weakness or genuine brand deterioration. At 14x EPS the stock looks cheap, but arguably deserves to until growth stabilizes and reaccelerates. x.comÂ
Celsius Holdings looks attractive as its operating metrics move in the right direction while the share price moves toward value territory. x.comÂ
Celsius' outgoing COO managed to cut Celsius brand volume 18% through SKU rationalization. Per @BevInsights citing NielsenIQ, Celsius Holdings energy drink volume fell 0.2% in the four weeks to August 22 on a 9.7% average price gain, as Celsius brand family volume dropped 18.1% while Alani Nu rose 33%. x.comÂ
Celsius carries too much risk despite significant insider buying. Bloom's scanner data, clear shelf-space gains and social momentum challenge Celsius, and freight is a headwind. Alani limited editions are doing well and accelerating slightly, but the core Celsius brand has no acceleration potential until Q1. x.comÂ
Celsius looks attractive at about 18x forward earnings after Alani and Rockstar drove revenue higher while its shares fell; continued international growth and wider distribution through Pepsi are key to the upside case. x.comÂ
Celsius bulls are missing that the drink tastes terrible and the brand has far too many flavors. That product weakness comes as Celsius posted an ugly miss, a reminder that a stock at 12x 2027 earnings can always get cheaper. x.comÂ
Celsius's repeated promotions may lift revenue and trial without building durable demand once the sale ends. The brand appears to be positioning itself as a value brand, and with most flavors not that good, it is hit or miss whether new buyers find one they keep buying. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's international expansion can double its revenue, yet it trades at a 75% discount to Monster on forward sales and 60% on forward earnings. Energy drinks have cult followings, are recession-proof and form a stable business model. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius overpaid for Alani Nu, and a Texas investigation now threatens the branding it paid for. Celsius bought Alani Nu for $1.775 billion in April 2025 to reach a younger demographic, and its colorful, social-native branding was the acquisition price. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's office, in a probe tied to a teenager's death, calls that branding deceptive marketing to minors. A finding could force reformulation, labeling changes or marketing limits, structurally impairing the asset. … Show more
