Noah
Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities
Celsius looks attractive at about 18x forward earnings after Alani and Rockstar drove revenue higher while its shares fell; continued international growth and wider distribution through Pepsi are key to the upside case. x.comÂ
Celsius may be 30% undervalued while Monster Beverage is 40% overvalued. If Celsius doubles revenue from $3.35 billion in 2026 to $6.7 billion in 2031 without more acquisitions, a big if, while lifting EBITDA margins to 31% and net margins to 24%, the stock has about 230% upside, a 24% CAGR, even at a conservative 10x EBITDA and 20x P/E. Monster is expected to grow EPS only 12% a year in 2027-28 yet trades at 37x forward earnings, when it should be no higher than 24x. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celsius looks unattractive because its moats are thin and it does not control the supply chain that matters for its business. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 32% year over year and the stock is down 32% to a 52-week low since its Alani Nu acquisition rally. A better P/E would be needed to make it interesting. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's Q1 2026 backs the cheap-valuation call, with revenue up 138% to $782.6M versus $763.1M expected and adjusted EPS of $0.41 versus $0.30. It now holds 21% of the US energy drink market, and its CEO says Celsius, Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy form a scaled modern energy portfolio recruiting new consumers and consumption occasions. x.comÂ
Celsius is not expensive at about 20x forward earnings with 15% EPS growth potential. @stock_analysisx notes Wall Street expects Celsius to compound EPS about 15% a year while the stock is down 39% year to date. x.comÂ
Celsius carries too much risk despite significant insider buying. Bloom's scanner data, clear shelf-space gains and social momentum challenge Celsius, and freight is a headwind. Alani limited editions are doing well and accelerating slightly, but the core Celsius brand has no acceleration potential until Q1. x.comÂ
Celsius's Energy+ Hydration line can broaden demand by serving people seeking a noncarbonated drink, but customer switching and manufacturing and freight costs limit what it adds. In the 2027 forecast, 35% of $75M in line sales replaces existing Celsius purchases, leaving about $49M in additional revenue and $19M in gross profit after new production costs and avoided costs on displaced products, before marketing and overhead. The test is how much the line adds to the whole franchise. x.comÂ
Celsius is priced as if its story is over when the business is intact, setting up a 3x-4.3x return by 2030. At $28 and a $7.67B market cap, it has $2.97B of trailing revenue, expanding 12% net margins and $323M of free cash flow; its one bad year, 2024, came from a PepsiCo inventory flush unrelated to consumer demand. With 20% annual growth, single-digit international penetration and margins reaching 15%, 2030 EPS of $4.08 at 20-30x gives $82-122 a share. x.comÂ
Celsius increasingly looks like a mature beverage business rather than a hypergrowth story, after a big miss on earnings and revenue. Sales grew just 10%, with growth expected around that level next year, and it is unclear whether this is temporary execution weakness or genuine brand deterioration. At 14x EPS the stock looks cheap, but arguably deserves to until growth stabilizes and reaccelerates. x.comÂ
Celsius still looks undervalued after its latest earnings, trading about 59% below its 52-week high despite record revenue of $818 million. First-half revenue grew roughly 50%, and Alani Nu retail sales surged nearly 56%. x.comÂ