Rose Celine Investments
Equity Investor
Celsius increasingly looks like a mature beverage business rather than a hypergrowth story, after a big miss on earnings and revenue. Sales grew just 10%, with growth expected around that level next year, and it is unclear whether this is temporary execution weakness or genuine brand deterioration. At 14x EPS the stock looks cheap, but arguably deserves to until growth stabilizes and reaccelerates. x.comÂ
Celsius now offers a much more interesting risk-reward setup because expectations have reset. At the peak it was valued as if infinite growth were guaranteed; sentiment is now much more skeptical, so the company no longer needs perfection for the stock to potentially work. The Alani Nu acquisition pairs its fitness brand with a lifestyle, female-focused one inside PepsiCo's distribution, which could build a brand portfolio if management executes. Risks are shifting tastes and brutal competition. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's core brand is shrinking and further distribution gains look limited, making it a worse bet than DoorDash. Q2 revenue of $817.9M and adjusted EPS of 36c missed estimates, and organic growth excluding Rockstar was just 2% versus 9% expected, as brand Celsius fell 12% while Alani Nu grew 22%. Management offered little sign of a turnaround, and with the PepsiCo deal four years old, new c-store gains are likely limited. Celsius manages at best 5% organic growth at 16x 2026 earnings. x.comÂ
Celsius looks unattractive because its moats are thin and it does not control the supply chain that matters for its business. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 32% year over year and the stock is down 32% to a 52-week low since its Alani Nu acquisition rally. A better P/E would be needed to make it interesting. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius is not expensive at about 20x forward earnings with 15% EPS growth potential. @stock_analysisx notes Wall Street expects Celsius to compound EPS about 15% a year while the stock is down 39% year to date. x.comÂ
Celsius carries too much risk despite significant insider buying. Bloom's scanner data, clear shelf-space gains and social momentum challenge Celsius, and freight is a headwind. Alani limited editions are doing well and accelerating slightly, but the core Celsius brand has no acceleration potential until Q1. x.comÂ
Celsius' outgoing COO managed to cut Celsius brand volume 18% through SKU rationalization. Per @BevInsights citing NielsenIQ, Celsius Holdings energy drink volume fell 0.2% in the four weeks to August 22 on a 9.7% average price gain, as Celsius brand family volume dropped 18.1% while Alani Nu rose 33%. x.comÂ
Celsius looks attractive at about 18x forward earnings after Alani and Rockstar drove revenue higher while its shares fell; continued international growth and wider distribution through Pepsi are key to the upside case. x.comÂ
Celsius's repeated promotions may lift revenue and trial without building durable demand once the sale ends. The brand appears to be positioning itself as a value brand, and with most flavors not that good, it is hit or miss whether new buyers find one they keep buying. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius overpaid for Alani Nu, and a Texas investigation now threatens the branding it paid for. Celsius bought Alani Nu for $1.775 billion in April 2025 to reach a younger demographic, and its colorful, social-native branding was the acquisition price. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's office, in a probe tied to a teenager's death, calls that branding deceptive marketing to minors. A finding could force reformulation, labeling changes or marketing limits, structurally impairing the asset. … Show more
Celsius is priced as if its story is over when the business is intact, setting up a 3x-4.3x return by 2030. At $28 and a $7.67B market cap, it has $2.97B of trailing revenue, expanding 12% net margins and $323M of free cash flow; its one bad year, 2024, came from a PepsiCo inventory flush unrelated to consumer demand. With 20% annual growth, single-digit international penetration and margins reaching 15%, 2030 EPS of $4.08 at 20-30x gives $82-122 a share. x.comÂ
Celsius bulls are missing that the drink tastes terrible and the brand has far too many flavors. That product weakness comes as Celsius posted an ugly miss, a reminder that a stock at 12x 2027 earnings can always get cheaper. x.comÂ
