Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
UiPath has no real earnings, barely any growth and a ridiculous valuation. x.comÂ
UiPath may carry the highest business-model risk of any SaaS company because LLM agents with computer use compete directly with its robotic process automation. Rivals include Anthropic and OpenAI themselves. Its base is sticky for now, with 97% gross retention, regulated large-enterprise customers and long contracts, giving it time to sell AI tools. Still, it would be very surprising if gross retention stays in the high 90s, and the 2x EV/ARR multiple reflects the threat. x.comÂ
UiPath's Maestro is starting to show up in deals, though not yet in growth. At the Citi conference, 18 of its top 20 quarterly deals included broader platform and AI features and were 4-6x larger than usual, $1M+ customers grew 21%, and net dollar retention rose to 109%. Maestro aims to orchestrate AI agents, robots, people and apps across whole processes, an edge with regulated enterprises. Outcome-based pricing could expand the opportunity; the September 22 Investor Day is the next test. x.comÂ
UiPath and integration-software vendors are on the wrong side of GPT-6 Astra's computer-use ability. OpenAI's Greg Brockman argues models that operate software like a person will bypass the APIs, plugins and RPA glue companies pay for. Astra scored 72.6% on OSWorld. If that holds in production, integration budgets shift from middleware to agent sellers. UiPath won't go straight to zero, being embedded in controls, audit logs and multi-year contracts; eight quarters of renewals decide it. x.com … Show more
Microsoft is a bigger near-term competitive threat to UiPath than Claude, a point that gets overlooked. Claude is the best standalone model, but large enterprises often block it over security, compliance and data governance, while Microsoft's Copilot is already embedded in daily tools and getting good enough. Microsoft's agentic tools are not yet on par with UiPath and the two are partners for now, and orchestration may leave room for UiPath if management executes. x.com x.comÂ
UiPath looks close to a bottom after building a large three-year base, undercutting support and reclaiming it, with bullish divergence on both 5- and 14-period RSI. Last month it partnered with Databricks to connect enterprise data directly into its agentic automation workflows, and it also has a robotics angle. x.com x.comÂ
UiPath is a low-quality stock growing barely 10%, and no such stock deserves a re-rating. A thesis that relies on a re-rate admits the fundamentals can't justify a big jump and hopes investors will simply pay more for more of the same. The promised re-rating still has not shown up. x.comÂ
UiPath shares are unlikely to go up because a 34% short float, especially heavy for a stock priced around $12, will hold the price down. Holders should move on. x.comÂ
UiPath offers good risk/reward because its investor day confirmed the narrative of rising AI demand, higher retention and growing opportunity, even without the acceleration the market wanted. That lack of acceleration was already known after earnings. The stock's continued weakness reflects healthy market mechanics rather than a broken thesis, and the aim is to buy the best risk/reward, not the best stocks. x.comÂ
Holding ServiceNow into earnings looks unwise after OpenAI released an agentic automation tool meant to replace UiPath and ServiceNow, sending UiPath down 13%. x.comÂ