Eric Jhonsa
Technology Portfolio Manager at Dutch Asset
Long-lived parts and maintenance revenue is an underappreciated benefit for many behind-the-meter power firms, some of which have gotten very cheap on 2027-28 estimates. INNIO expects more than $50M a year per GW in services from its 19GW backlog and reserved slots, much of it arriving five and ten years after deployment, atop roughly $30M a year per GW from its 44GW installed base. That revenue could persist long after the data-center capex boom ends. x.com
Rising rack power densities could keep some behind-the-meter power suppliers working even if capex moderates without collapsing in 12-18 months. Solaris Energy Infrastructure, ERock, 2G Energy and Babcock & Wilcox trade at single-digit multiples of likely earnings in 12-18 months, while power looks like a major constraint on next year's data-center builds. x.com x.com
2G Energy's growing orders and long service tail support its unusually cheap AI data-center power valuation. Nine-month 2026 orders exceed €880m, more than twice 2025 revenue; backlog runs into 2028 and service contracts last 15-20 years. Management first guided to €750-850m of revenue in 2028 and says units already sold could support over $100m in annual service revenue once running from mid-2027. At about 17x expected 2027 earnings, it looks cheapest in this space and is preferred to INNIO. … Show more
Behind-the-meter power generation stocks should be rallying, since data-center permitting delays and a backed-up grid push demand toward on-site power. INIO is a prime example: the stock has sold off even though it is a massive behind-the-meter beneficiary with accelerating demand, especially as data centers become more modular and smaller. x.com
INNIO is an under-the-radar power play that looks cheap next to Bloom Energy. It has a $6.6B backlog and almost 4 GW of annual capacity by 2027, at a $23B market cap versus Bloom's $70B with roughly the same capacity, though the comparison isn't that simple. It isn't on anyone's radar yet, which is a great thing. x.com x.com
AI data-center investment needs outside AI spending to rise 33-fold by 2030 to break even. Hyperscalers hold $4.5 trillion in debt and future liabilities, but corporate and SaaS token spending outside circular deals is only $60 billion annualized against a $2 trillion break-even ARR. SK hynix says memory shortages may last until 2031, raising capex and CoreWeave default risk; Mitsubishi warns turbines are booked through 2031 and cost 400% more, delaying CoreWeave and Oracle data centers. x.com … Show more
INNIO looks attractive despite sponsor-selling pressure: it expects roughly the same 2026 revenue as Bloom Energy at about one-sixth its market cap, while backlog rose from $1.0bn to $6.6bn and customers prepaid $1.4bn. Its IPO was entirely secondary, sponsors still own 86%, and the November 30 lockup expiry could bring another block sale before business growth shows through in the stock. x.com x.com
AI power generation is now all about deployment speed, with a shortfall of about 38 GW through 2028, of which only about 15 GW will be met by the grid, per Morgan Stanley. Bloom Energy looks pricey at about 82x earnings, but a bull case of about $25B of 2030 revenue implies $16.70+ EPS and $668 at 40x. Gas winners include Howmet, GE Vernova, Caterpillar and Baker Hughes. Cheap solar plus batteries deploys in 18-24 months, favoring Nextracker, Shoals, Fluence, Tesla and Albemarle. x.com
Generac stands to benefit as power, not GPUs, becomes the next bottleneck for AI datacenters. Amazon signed a seven-year backup-generator deal with Generac worth up to $8 billion, with about $2.4 billion slated for delivery in 2027-28, giving Generac high revenue visibility. Gigawatt-scale AI campuses need extreme reliability, since an outage can wreck cluster efficiency, and grid connection can take 5-7 years in core regions, making backup power central to datacenter reliability. x.com
Generac's long-term deal to supply backup generators for Amazon's data centers makes it a strategic long-term play as more power capacity is needed. The agreement could pay up to $8B, with initial deliveries of $2.4B across 2027 and 2028, and Amazon received warrants for up to 1.69M Generac shares at $200.93. x.com
Capstone Energy+ is a little-known play on behind-the-meter power, a market expected to grow from $108 billion to $520 billion. Everyone knows Bloom Energy, but few know Capstone, which looks positioned to land a data center deal soon, with accelerating revenue growth, improving margins, positive free cash flow and net income, a healthy balance sheet and an attractive valuation. x.com
GE Vernova's 2030 earnings base has a floor that the equipment-cyclicality debate ignores, because every gigawatt shipped from its 116 GW backlog attaches a 20-plus-year service annuity. Free cash flow equal to roughly 20% of its market cap over four years is about a 5% annual yield, which alone justifies much of its premium multiple to the sector. x.com
