Oil faces further ground-transport substitution because bidirectional EV charging can offset driving costs without a car-purchase subsidy. An unsubsidized Dacia Spring with a bidirectional inverter costs EUR19,900; grid discharge can pay for about 10,000 km of driving. EU registrations show battery-electric cars rising while petrol and diesel fall. Letting Venezuela produce and easing Hormuz constraints would crater oil and might make it competitive again, but would bust the Permian. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Plummeting base costs and weaker demand from struggling economies abroad should push crude oil lower next year. The same forces will also weigh on many other commodities and services. x.com 

Crude oil's supply damage would persist even if the wars in Russia and Iran ended, because infrastructure is destroyed and tankers are damaged. Diesel has broken resistance alongside US 30-year yields; without a collapse in diesel driven by a severe stock-market drop and unemployment, both are expected to keep rising, setting up a harsher eventual downturn. x.com 

The crude oil price panic looks overblown because dependence on oil has structurally shrunk through EVs, e-scooters, heat pumps and broader electrification. In real terms, oil was more expensive for years last decade, and it was unusually cheap before this spike; it will be cheap again. x.com 

Crude oil faces lower price ceilings now that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened. The EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook cut its targets to $74 a barrel for Brent in 2026 and $65 in 2027 as supply chains stabilize. The bigger story is power: the EIA sees record US electricity demand through 2027, with commercial use overtaking residential, so baseload power costs stay structurally high. The winners are utilities, SMR developers and GPU clouds with cheap 24/7 power, not oil producers. x.com 

Crude oil's last cushion is gone as recovering demand squeezes constrained Middle East supply. Barclays puts China imports near pre-war levels at 10.5m b/d, India up 600,000 b/d year on year and Middle East flows at 84% of pre-war levels; US demand is recovering. After more than 500m barrels of inventory were drawn down, buyers are paying a $13/bbl premium for next-week cargoes over the front-month contract, versus under $4 a week into the war. x.com 

Crude oil faces a return of the glut. Per @JavierBlas, the IEA's first look at 2027 sees too much oil again by this time next year, as Hormuz is expected to reopen, though the agency warns of higher-than-normal uncertainty in its supply and demand forecasts. x.com 

Crude oil was never headed to $200 because Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent will do whatever it takes to contain it, though their main tool is running low. Markets rank AI and the Fed above the Iran conflict, which would only hurt them through sustained oil above $100-$110 or new highs. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have engineered calm, but the SPR is getting dangerously low and the buffer shrinks each week the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com