Oil faces further ground-transport substitution because bidirectional EV charging can offset driving costs without a car-purchase subsidy. An unsubsidized Dacia Spring with a bidirectional inverter costs EUR19,900; grid discharge can pay for about 10,000 km of driving. EU registrations show battery-electric cars rising while petrol and diesel fall. Letting Venezuela produce and easing Hormuz constraints would crater oil and might make it competitive again, but would bust the Permian. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks more likely to rip through $100 given UBS's view that $100 oil won't hit the economy like the 1970s. Per UBS, oil spending is now 1.7% of US GDP versus 4.8% in 1974, with a similar decline in Europe, so supply disruptions would have a smaller macro impact. x.com 

Plummeting base costs and weaker demand from struggling economies abroad should push crude oil lower next year. The same forces will also weigh on many other commodities and services. x.com 

Crude oil should keep moving lower even after the midterms, because 2027 economic projections point to lower inflation. Around $100, oil was a good short since policymakers wouldn't let it break out ahead of the midterms and risk voter confidence. Some volatility is likely at first. x.com 

Crude oil's long historical correlation with gold and its lag behind gold make an oil catch-up to $200-$500 almost a lock. Oil-to-gold stands at 0.03 against a 75-plus-year upper range of 0.15; even a move to around 0.08 would mean oil rising 2-3 times against gold, gold falling 50%-66%, or both moving. Demand would probably hold up to around $300, though it could break closer to $500. Such a surge is not an outcome to cheer for. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Future oil prices are low because traders know permanent demand destruction is now the global goal, and the Hormuz oil shock is accelerating EV adoption like a wartime mandate. EVs already displaced 1.7M barrels a day in 2025, about 70% of Iran's prewar Hormuz exports. The fleet of 80M EVs should reach 200M by 2030, mostly in Asia and Europe, displacing 5-6M barrels a day. Big Oil knows this, and the bond market is starting to; the US is moving backward while others accelerate. x.com  x.com 

Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's last cushion is gone as recovering demand squeezes constrained Middle East supply. Barclays puts China imports near pre-war levels at 10.5m b/d, India up 600,000 b/d year on year and Middle East flows at 84% of pre-war levels; US demand is recovering. After more than 500m barrels of inventory were drawn down, buyers are paying a $13/bbl premium for next-week cargoes over the front-month contract, versus under $4 a week into the war. x.com 

Crude oil's spike is a textbook transitory supply shock that turns deflationary once it runs its course. Historically such shocks drive inflation for just 2-3 CPI prints before the effects are absorbed and demand softens, much like the 2007 oil surge before the 2008 crisis and 2009 deflation, and the market has not fully priced this in. The labor market is clearly deteriorating, so a deflationary shift comes next and defensive positioning beats chasing highs. x.com