Future oil prices are low because traders know permanent demand destruction is now the global goal, and the Hormuz oil shock is accelerating EV adoption like a wartime mandate. EVs already displaced 1.7M barrels a day in 2025, about 70% of Iran's prewar Hormuz exports. The fleet of 80M EVs should reach 200M by 2030, mostly in Asia and Europe, displacing 5-6M barrels a day. Big Oil knows this, and the bond market is starting to; the US is moving backward while others accelerate. x.com  x.com 

The crude oil price panic looks overblown because dependence on oil has structurally shrunk through EVs, e-scooters, heat pumps and broader electrification. In real terms, oil was more expensive for years last decade, and it was unusually cheap before this spike; it will be cheap again. x.com 

Crude oil is being pushed higher by design: the main purpose of the conflict is to raise oil prices so that Venezuelan oil, which costs $20-40 a barrel to produce, can be sold at a profit. Venezuela's production had been very low because its costs were almost equal to the oil price. x.com 

Ford's low-price push against Chinese EV makers is unlikely to end well because the segment is intensely price-sensitive and Chinese manufacturers innovate and refresh models at a frightening pace. Ford should expect margin erosion, and one successful pickup would not dent the disruption under way. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil prices are likely headed lower as a Venezuela deal covering 65 billion barrels and $100 billion, plus a new strait being dug on the Omani side, open up supply. That doesn't sink every oil stock: refiners and midstream services stand to benefit, and Halliburton could gain greatly from years of rehab work across 17 Venezuelan fields, where it already has a subsidiary and is reportedly in talks to supply equipment and services. x.com 

Crude oil's 4 million-barrel-a-day global inventory draw despite weaker exports and refinery demand signals physical tightness. Chinese exports and refinery demand in Russia and China are each down a few million barrels a day, yet Brent is at a more than four-year high. Bessent says Persian Gulf exports exceed prewar levels, but cash and dated Brent trade well above front-month futures. Rising backwardation and inventory draws leave smaller buffers if escalation continues. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil faces a strong bearish headwind from potential new supply, as the Trump administration is reportedly close to a deal for ownership stakes in Venezuelan oil fields that US officials estimate could more than double US reserves. A textbook double top on the daily chart has price rejecting resistance and accelerating lower. The downside target is the 200-day EMA, where a bounce could follow if institutional buyers defend it. x.com 

Crude oil's price floor is well below $70 a barrel now that Iran is under control and Venezuela is pumping oil. x.com 

Crude oil's supply damage would persist even if the wars in Russia and Iran ended, because infrastructure is destroyed and tankers are damaged. Diesel has broken resistance alongside US 30-year yields; without a collapse in diesel driven by a severe stock-market drop and unemployment, both are expected to keep rising, setting up a harsher eventual downturn. x.com 

US crude and Chevron face a potential domestic glut: supertanker export costs are said to have risen from $8 million to $80 million, pushing Asian and European buyers toward Saudi and South American oil. Limited US refining capacity could leave the surplus unused and bankrupt smaller producers, though the author still says earlier exports caused a shortage. x.com  x.com  x.com