Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
Coinbase is hard to be structurally bearish on for anyone bullish on crypto infrastructure, as one of the few scaled public companies at the center of stablecoins, tokenization, custody and crypto's merger with TradFi. After a 10x run from 2022, it has consolidated for two years, with buyers defending the $140-160 zone three times. With retail interest gone and attention exhausted, conditions are set for the next large move, though a sustained move above $245-320 is still needed. x.comÂ
Coinbase's current pullback, like every one before it, lacks institutional selling, leaving the stock very inefficiently priced. Last year's buy volume was the largest ever, with substantial institutional backing through Nasdaq-100 inclusion above $250. It is now basing after twice failing to break its 2024 and 2025 lows. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's Coinbase Institutional withdrawals into the dip look like quiet accumulation. Whale Alert reported 648 BTC, worth about $51.9 million, moving from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet, adding a different demand signal to the earlier ETF-flow case. x.comÂ
Coinbase's revenue growth has turned negative, enough to reconsider the view that its dips are buyable. It may not be worth touching in the near term, even if it rebounds technically. x.comÂ
Coinbase is testing the same support that held in September 2024, February 2025 and April 2025, and the drop reflects spiking rates, not a broken company. It has $7 billion of revenue and $1.26 billion of net income, yet the stock is down 38% year to date and 59% year over year. Crypto's next cycle has not started yet, which makes this the setup. x.comÂ
Coinbase should recover into a more diversified business when bitcoin recovers, yet it trades as if its only product broke. In nine months it added zero-commission stock trading, prediction markets at $100M annualized revenue, stock and pre-IPO perps, and derivatives at $200M annualized, and it receives about 50% of USDC economics. Bitcoin near $64K sits below its ~$87K mining cost, historically a buy signal. At 6-7x sales versus Robinhood's 18.6x, the risk/reward is favorable. x.comÂ
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.comÂ
Coinbase participated in the crypto rebound's trading activity. Its spot volume rose about 41-50% month over month to roughly $61-64 billion, overtaking Bybit for third among top-tier spot exchanges. That counters AlphaTAEdgde's claim that the rebound's volume bypassed Coinbase. x.comÂ
Coinbase is pivoting from retail brokerage to the main institutional gateway for crypto, which its price does not fully credit; rated Overweight with a $290 December 2026 target. Spot bitcoin and ether ETPs validated its infrastructure, while custody, Circle revenue and stablecoin income give a floor beyond retail trading. The sum-of-the-parts target values the exchange at 35x plus Circle, crypto holdings and Base. Q1 was a big miss, yet the stock should rise. Risks: a crypto slump, new rivals. … Show more
The carnage in crypto could push Coinbase another leg lower and break its February lows, even though it is already down about 60% from its all-time high. Anecdotally, few people seem to use Coinbase anymore, with most turning to Kraken and Hyperliquid. x.comÂ
Coinbase is becoming much more than a crypto exchange, with USDC, derivatives, prediction markets, tokenization and Base. The chart supports it: the stock has built a massive seven-month Stage 1 base and reclaimed its 200-day moving average, and when it gets going it tends to move hard. x.comÂ
