Finn Stockinger
Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research
LightPath Technologies is positioned to break a US defense optics bottleneck, because its Navy-developed chalcogenide glass engineers germanium out of the equation. Beijing and Moscow control over 80% of refined germanium, so cutting supply would leave the US military with a massive problem unless an American company uses a different material. That shift is already happening, and the next 12 months should make it clear. x.comÂ
Necessity is LightPath's main tailwind, because Chinese germanium is barely reaching Western buyers. China exported 2.8 metric tons of germanium in August 2026, and almost all of it went to Russia, which uses it in FPV drones. x.com x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies is becoming an indispensable US infrared optics supplier as germanium export controls squeeze US and European defense supply chains. Its BlackDiamond chalcogenide glass needs no germanium, and the January 2026 Amorphous Materials deal added a second US plant. NDAA sourcing rules favor it; a $9.6M infrared camera order came in February. A shift to higher-margin imaging systems lifts pricing and margins, and on about $71M of fiscal 2026 revenue, big orders lift EPS sharply. … Show more
LightPath's strategic value looks enormous as China restricts rare earths, since it offers the only US alternative to restricted rare-earth materials. nLight's sudden China supply issues, which its management said could spill into defense and high-energy lasers, show China trying to slow the US defense industry. LightPath is also moving up the value chain into cameras built with its proprietary glass, and a recent acquisition lets it make much larger optics for markets such as satellites. x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies looks mispriced because most still value it as an optics components shop while it is becoming the domestic infrared supply chain. Its BlackDiamond chalcogenide glass replaces germanium, which China put under export controls, and it is moving from selling lenses to selling imaging systems. Last quarter revenue rose 109%, gross margin rose 700bps to 36%, adjusted EBITDA turned positive and backlog hit a record ~$110M. The re-rate comes from the mix, not the multiple. x.comÂ
LightPath's large drone-camera optics order validates its ability to scale production for military thermal imaging. An unnamed key defense customer ordered over 50,000 optical assemblies amid accelerating U.S. drone procurement; assemblies grew from 23% of FY2025 revenue to 44% in FY2026. x.comÂ
LightPath Technologies trades at 6.3x FY2027 analyst revenue, half nLIGHT's 13x on essentially the same small-cap defense photonics setup. NDAA Section 834 requires the Pentagon to drop optical glass from China, Russia and others by 2030, and LightPath holds the only US chalcogenide glass licensed from the Naval Research Laboratory. After Q3 revenue rose 109%, analysts lifted FY2027 revenue 27% to $106M. Risks include G5 earnout charges, a $200M shelf and a plant in China. x.com x.comÂ
LightPath's counter-drone deliveries could significantly lift revenue in the upcoming report if their monthly cadence began mid-last quarter. Sam Rubin said two systems are moving toward tens of deliveries monthly; Trust Automation is almost definitely one, but the ramp is unknown. Exclusively licensed, DoD-qualified BDNL materials and IR redesign expertise give LightPath a strong moat over generic-material rivals; integrators often lack optics teams, though other materials have uses. x.com … Show more
LightPath's production-scale drone-optics order signals further demand as the industry shifts from germanium. The order is now estimated at $15M-17.5M based on program economics, down from an initial $20M-plus estimate; the customer remains unconfirmed after an initial Anduril guess. Rubin and Miranda's 2.975M options at a $10.53 strike vest on a buyout, making $7-$9 bids unattractive; a meaningful payout needs a price in the mid-teens or $20s. More orders are expected. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
LightPath, Syntec Optics and Optex Systems stand to benefit as investment banks start explicitly talking about a coming supply-chain crunch in defense photonics. x.comÂ
When wars drag on, the sensors and components inside weapons platforms make the money, which favors nLIGHT, LightPath and RFHIC. On March 3, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, KOSPI crashed 7.24% while sensor makers such as RFHIC rallied alongside platform names. RF power amplifiers inside radars such as Cheongung-II's are the bottleneck, and RFHIC signed a KRW 50.6 billion amplifier contract with Raytheon Canada. The same InP, GaAs and GaN wafers go into lasers, radars and IR sensors. x.com … Show more
