Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Bloom Energy and Fluence are the two clear short-term winners as data centers need energy now. What matters is efficiency, not the source, and new generation or storing unused energy achieve the same outcome. Bloom generates it best, and Fluence stores it best. x.comÂ
A projected US power shortfall makes independent power producers Talen Energy and Vistra no-brainer investments. Morgan Stanley Research estimates a 38 GW net US power shortfall in 2026-28, up from 32 GW, after accounting for additional supply. x.com x.comÂ
Fluence Energy is unattractive because its margins are poor, however tempting the share price looks. x.comÂ
An early AI buildout, healthcare data, tokenized finance and copper's clearest supply-demand imbalance favor a 15-stock growth basket now. Marvell, Applied Optoelectronics, Nebius, Eli Lilly, Tempus, Ouster, Regal Rexnord, Bloom Energy, Fluence, SpaceX, Brazil's EWZ ETF, Nu Holdings, Coinbase, Securitize and the COPX copper-miners ETF are the picks. Keep Fluence smaller; SpaceX stays bullish long term despite rejecting $500B-$1T ARR in 2027. x.comÂ
Centrus Energy's fast-growing backlog looks increasingly large against its market value, though the opportunity depends on SMRs. Backlog rose from $1.2B to $4.5B in two years, about twice its $2.2B market cap despite the stock falling from $411 to $109; it extends through 2040. Backlog has grown roughly 20% a quarter, much of it from companies like Oklo and Constellation Energy. The market may not believe in SMRs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fluence Energy is bearish in the short term after its guidance cut, with the shares heading to new 52-week lows, though the long-term view remains bullish. x.comÂ
Uranium and nuclear stocks look to have bottomed as AI drives record demand for nuclear power and carbon goals. Google signed a major power deal with Constellation Energy, adding 890 MW of nuclear capacity in PJM, and France expects EU approval to subsidize six new reactors totaling about 10 GW. The IEA sees global electricity use rising about 5,400 TWh by 2030, and Goldman Sachs estimates a 2.3 billion-pound uranium deficit through 2045. Fall seasonality and a double bottom add support. x.com … Show more
Fluence's batteries are the only grid bridge shipping now, with gas turbines sold out into 2030 and transformers on 130-week lead times. Investors fixated on the August guidance cut are missing about $850M of data-center business booked through July, including a $300M behind-the-meter order. It trades at 0.6x EV/sales on $2.63B of revenue growing 8%, with net debt of $74M against $339M cash. The SEC investigation and pending Abramov class action could make the discount permanent. x.comÂ
Eos Energy, Fluence and FuelCell Energy are best avoided because capital-intensive energy technology requires super-high capex. These small companies have no way to compete with industrial giants that have far greater borrowing power. Bloom Energy is the exception, with lower capitalization and a unique product delivered within 60-90 days of contract signing. x.comÂ
X-Energy's coming parabolic revenue growth makes its shares attractive. Its meltdown-proof TRISO fuel is going to be big for AI. Buying X-Energy now feels like buying Centrus Energy in 2022 or 2023 after its shares crashed below $20; Dogecoin's market cap is three times X-Energy's. X-Energy probably has not bottomed yet. x.com x.comÂ