Intuit's growing business platform makes pricing the whole firm like slowing TurboTax too pessimistic. It is 54% of revenue, grew 18% in FY26 and is guided to 13-14% in FY27; 15% growth in revenue per customer shows switching costs, though new-customer targets are missed. At ~14x FY27 earnings including stock comp (16x GAAP), shares imply low-single-digit long-term cash flow growth. If the platform grows ~10% and consumer stays flat, EPS should grow ~8-10% a year, beating the index even at 12x. … Show more

Intuit trades at only 11x forward earnings, a valuation back down to earth and then some versus the roughly 2% free cash flow yield it averaged from 2013 until the SaaS crash. Its tax and SMB accounting markets are known and not shrinking, growing at least with GDP and population; the only question is how much Intuit captures. Free filers were never the valuable customers. Non-GAAP earnings exclude stock compensation, but Intuit's adjustments are typical of peers and less sketchy. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Intuit will survive AI, but its products are among the most vulnerable to it, and AI should take a massive chunk of its business. It relied heavily on customers staying for convenience, and it has already admitted customer spending is tightening. Revenue growth has slowed to 10%, and the 17% staff layoff looks like an effort to offset lost future business. It may not be a terrible buy here, but it won't return near historic valuations, and better SaaS options exist. x.com 

Intuit's AI risk is overstated, and at roughly 17x FY27 GAAP EPS the stock doesn't match its results. FY26 revenue rose 14% and GAAP EPS 20%; TurboTax units fell 2%, yet revenue grew 7% as AI-plus-expert TurboTax Live grew 37% to 53% of it. QuickBooks' moat is the accountant channel trained on it, plus payroll and payments compliance. The FY27 guide has EPS up 22–24% without unit growth. Risks: banks bundling AI bookkeepers, or tax-code simplification. x.com  x.com 

Intuit is a high-quality compounding software business worth owning while sentiment is weak, thanks to ecosystem advantages across TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks and Mailchimp and AI layered into products with deep customer relationships. It reported strong Q2 FY2026 results and reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $20.997B-$21.186B, about 12-13% growth, with 14-15% non-GAAP EPS growth. x.com 

Intuit is likely to be slightly disrupted by Claude and other AI tools that prepare and file taxes, and is not a great contrarian buy-the-dip opportunity. Cheaper or even free open-source QuickBooks rivals that startups can spin up by vibe coding with Claude add possible disruption from multiple fronts. An accountant replying argues QuickBooks with AI features has pricing power. Disruption is real but has a few winners, such as Reddit and Snap, likely more profitable from AI opex cuts. x.com  … Show more

Intuit is well placed for a software rally, with EPS likely to accelerate and its P/E multiple to recover. Starting a business has never been easier, and those businesses need accounting software. They won't vibe code their own, since it is a small cost that must be tax compliant and linked to governments for automatic filing, and vibe-coded rivals risk security breaches. Businesses are also subscribing to AI features inside accounting software, such as automatic cost classification. x.com 

HubSpot and Intuit have a meaningful chance to be AI winners even as the market destroys SMB software, because selling to small businesses is life on hard mode, as @travisk put it, which makes it moaty. The math is so hard that competition is thin and survivors gain share in downturns; they have aggregated customers at scale; AI agents favor full-platform adoption and clean data; and AI may spur many new small businesses. They still add customers, but the window is closing; they must accelerate. … Show more

Intuit's core TurboTax pricing is collapsing as AI turns tax filing into a commodity. Goldman estimates AI can process a standard return for about $0.12, against TurboTax's blended revenue of roughly $162 per return. Intuit sold confidence, and plain explanations are now free and instant; it said last quarter that it lost on price, then cut 17% of staff. Filing, compliance, audit support and trust still matter, and it has partnered with Anthropic, but the question is what it is worth afterward. … Show more

Intuit's dominant market positions, recurring revenue, high switching costs and exceptional cash generation make it a world-class compounder, and the market's AI fears may be offering it at a discount. x.com