LatentValue
Supply-Chain Research, Semiconductors & Advanced Packaging
Fittech still looks good despite vertical-integration worries, because it addresses bottlenecks that make sense to outsource. Its known-good-die test and sort for DFB and EEL lasers tackles one key bottleneck, and its FAU assembly automation means machine sales either to companies bringing that work in-house or to companies offering it as a service. x.comÂ
Fittech looks imminently set to win business, as it is urgently hiring 50-plus people in Nantun around the clock. Hiring that fast raises burn sharply, which a company would avoid without imminent work. At OFC26 Fittech showed its patented fiber-array-unit inspection and assembly is ready: fibers are suctioned through the correct exit holes, then glued and cured in place. This fits its pivot to co-packaged optics automation as Foci targets automated FAU production. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fittech (6706.TW) is the best position to capture the demand boom flowing through the optical supply chain from Browave and Foci. x.comÂ
FOCI's ReLFACon reflowable lensed fiber array connector is its moat in CPO: it links fiber arrays directly into silicon-photonics CPO modules with heat-tolerant materials matching the chip's thermal expansion, holding alignment through hot packaging. Its fiber array units, about 40% of CPO module cost, partly decide whether CPO can be mass-produced. Himax and TSMC ties make it Taiwan's core FAU player. @aleabitoreddit expects Nvidia's Computex keynote to lift Taiwan optics including FOCI. x.comÂ
FormFactor's production-ready wafer-level CPO probe gives it a test opportunity at a major foundry, but that business depends on one customer. CEO Mike Slessor says the CPO piece flows through a foundry worth 10% of sales; he did not name it, though an analyst named TSMC. Triton tests photonic wafers before stacking; post-stack test remains difficult. FormFactor expects CPO test revenue to significantly exceed $20m this year and estimates a $400m market by 2030. x.comÂ
FOCI's CPO coupling opportunity faces a future share test because Largan plans to ship qualified fiber arrays during FOCI's 2027-28 ramp. For now, both call arrays and FAUs short, so this reads as added capacity, not lost share. FOCI began booking small FAU revenue at 3.2T and above in Q3; most of its growth is still older business. Largan's line is due by end-Q2 2027. If CPO switches ship in volume and FOCI's monthly revenue stays flat into 1H27, share becomes the question. x.com x.comÂ
FOCI is positioned for a coming fiber-array-unit bottleneck in co-packaged optics, where supply cannot meet demand. Per UDN, Largan Precision, FOCI and China's TFC have entered Nvidia's FAU supply chain; about 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year would need roughly 600k-700k FAUs, demand should reach several million units in 2027, and existing capacity cannot meet it. It is a tad early, with mass production expected in H2 2027. x.comÂ
FOCI Fiber Optic Communications could sit at the center of Nvidia's co-packaged optics supply chain as AI data centers move from pluggable fiber to CPO in 2026. It has built fiber array units with TSMC for over three years, has 1.6T and 3.2T specs in the pipeline, and its proprietary ReLFACon technology removes the need for separate transceivers. A patent trail linking FOCI, Himax and TSMC suggests it is Nvidia's exclusive CPO fiber array supplier. A daily SuperTrend buy signal just confirmed. … Show more
Aehr Test Systems has a proven lead in a test step AI optics needs but few can run at scale: high-power wafer-level burn-in for silicon photonics. Co-packaged optics makes it mandatory, since a chip failing after bonding scraps the whole switch, and newer devices need 2-4x more burn-in power. Bookings hit $37.2M, up over 500% in a quarter, at a book-to-bill above 3.5x. Goldman sees optical networking growing from about $15B in 2026 to $154B by 2028, and the test bottleneck forms first. x.comÂ
The shift from copper to light inside AI data centers is accelerating, and near-packaged optics is pulling optical demand forward. Lumentum's CEO said NPO demand looks bigger than CPO and arrived sooner, and he sees about $40 per share of fiscal 2028 earnings power, above sell-side estimates, with none of it in the numbers yet. Coherent's CEO said CPO and NPO engagement has jumped, with comparable content per socket. NVIDIA has moved its Spectrum-X CPO switch into full production. x.comÂ
Interconnect, not compute, is now the binding constraint on AI clusters. Copper, pluggable optics and CPO will coexist for years, so the strongest names span both paths or own the tightest bottleneck. Top five: Credo, the fastest-growing full stack; Applied Optoelectronics, the 800G/1.6T ramp; Marvell, broadest but richly priced; Lumentum, the laser chokepoint; Tower, the foundry bet. Coherent, Amphenol, Fabrinet, GlobalFoundries, TSMC and Broadcom also gain. Astera Labs is pricier and narrower. … Show more
Lumentum is the only volume supplier of EML lasers for 1.6T optics, capacity is sold out, and indium phosphide fabs do not scale overnight. Qualcomm and Corning partnered with it on 1,060nm VCSEL chip-to-chip links targeting about 10 Tb/s. Revenue grew 109% and it trades at 30.6x forward earnings with $1.07B of net cash; a one-time $7.8B non-cash convert charge hid profitable operations. Risks are convert dilution and Coherent and Broadcom adding InP lasers before the shortage eases. x.comÂ
