Bending Spoons' acquisition economics make its valuation look better than a rigid P/E cutoff suggests. It pays 2-3x revenue for targets and often earns back the investment in a couple of years, putting its effective P/E below 10x by this reckoning. At $33, the stock is about 12x estimated 2027 adjusted EBIT; the principle is buying below intrinsic value, not blindly rejecting anything above 10x earnings. x.com  x.com 

Constellation Software has no way to benefit from AI and little organic growth, so 21x GAAP EBIT looks fair, with perhaps a downside skew if churn rises across its portfolio in the next five years. The market's negative reaction is rational. Its small vertical software businesses were run financially rather than for product, many still on-prem, with no central AI strategy as software gets cheaper to build. Organic growth was 2% in constant currency; inorganic growth is fundamentally different. … Show more

Bending Spoons looks expensive at 14x revenue for a digital tobacco business whose portfolio is a fast-melting ice cube. The model could work given the endless supply of failed VC-backed apps with deeply loyal customers to buy and raise prices on, and Bending Spoons may lever up to take out some very big names. Yet the market does not credit existing SaaS companies with the same ability to raise prices on locked-in customers. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated buyback leans on debt in a way that risks leveraging its future, as happened at Fiserv. Fiserv cut its share count 21.5% with debt-funded buybacks averaging $167 a share, and now trades under $60 as growth fell. Salesforce can afford this round with $14 billion of free cash flow, but growth is slowing to single digits, AI isn't yet transforming its ecosystem, and its goodwill-heavy book limits deals. The risk is that multiples compress and it doubles down. … Show more

Constellation Software's post-earnings selloff is myopic, reflecting a market unwilling to look beyond one quarter. Results are driven by lumpy capital deployed into acquisitions, which analysts can't forecast, so performance must be judged over years rather than against quarterly estimates. This quarter's organic growth deceleration feeds the bear case, but it was not a normal quarter, and management explained it well on the call; the market may stay in show-me mode until Q3. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bending Spoons' equity is not a good investment at a double-digit revenue multiple. Its management may be good value investors, but paying that multiple is like buying Strategy at twice net asset value. x.com  x.com 

Bending Spoons is not compelling because so much of its strategy is M&A, at a magnitude far beyond the typical. It made roughly 17 acquisitions over the past five years versus 3 for Broadcom, a count that may be off but is directionally right. M&A is not bad in itself, and Bending Spoons beats Accenture and Constellation Software among acquisition-led names, but there are better opportunities. x.com  x.com 

Bending Spoons' growth is bought on credit, while Constellation Software can deleverage quickly, and valuations should eventually reflect that. Both grow just 3-5% organically, and Bending Spoons' organic rate halved twice (13% to 6% to 3%). Yet Bending Spoons trades at 19x FY25 sales versus 3.8x, with net debt at 3.1x revenue versus 0.2-0.4x and interest at 11% of revenue versus 2.6%. Bending Spoons needs the next deal to pay for the previous one. x.com 

AI's ability to remove friction from cancellations is likely to be a big part of Bending Spoons' undoing. Its model buys expiring software and raises prices, depending on customers staying despite that. The damage will not play out in a day; the company needs later and larger acquisitions to keep the story going. x.com