Bending Spoons is not compelling because so much of its strategy is M&A, at a magnitude far beyond the typical. It made roughly 17 acquisitions over the past five years versus 3 for Broadcom, a count that may be off but is directionally right. M&A is not bad in itself, and Bending Spoons beats Accenture and Constellation Software among acquisition-led names, but there are better opportunities. x.com  x.com 

Bending Spoons' equity is not a good investment at a double-digit revenue multiple. Its management may be good value investors, but paying that multiple is like buying Strategy at twice net asset value. x.com  x.com 

Bending Spoons' acquisition economics make its valuation look better than a rigid P/E cutoff suggests. It pays 2-3x revenue for targets and often earns back the investment in a couple of years, putting its effective P/E below 10x by this reckoning. At $33, the stock is about 12x estimated 2027 adjusted EBIT; the principle is buying below intrinsic value, not blindly rejecting anything above 10x earnings. x.com  x.com 

Constellation Software offers the same growth rate as ServiceNow at half its multiple when ServiceNow's after-tax stock-based compensation is factored in. x.com 

Constellation Software and its spin-offs Lumine Group and Topicus.com are among the few software companies run for shareholders' benefit, which assures a good outcome if they are bought at modest valuations. Under 20 times earnings is reasonable, but no more. x.com  x.com 

Bending Spoons is a unique model of buying cheap, forgotten software businesses and cutting costs that could scale past $20B of annual revenue, but it is hard to forecast. The biggest red flag is organic growth slowing from low double digits to low single digits, raising pressure on its debt-fueled acquisition strategy, since layoffs are one-time boosts with large severance costs. Strong net revenue retention may rely on price hikes; churn after two or three years is the key question. x.com  … Show more

Constellation Software is finally at a fair valuation, making it a good time to accumulate. It has three big opportunities: new types of investments such as small stakes in public companies, adding AI to its thousands of software products at little extra cost, and buying small software companies in Asia and other less competitive regions. x.com 

Constellation Software is a good opportunity in a market said to have none, because it has doubled free cash flow available to shareholders while its market cap has gone nowhere. x.com 

Constellation Software has no way to benefit from AI and little organic growth, so 21x GAAP EBIT looks fair, with perhaps a downside skew if churn rises across its portfolio in the next five years. The market's negative reaction is rational. Its small vertical software businesses were run financially rather than for product, many still on-prem, with no central AI strategy as software gets cheaper to build. Organic growth was 2% in constant currency; inorganic growth is fundamentally different. … Show more

Bending Spoons looks expensive at 14x revenue for a digital tobacco business whose portfolio is a fast-melting ice cube. The model could work given the endless supply of failed VC-backed apps with deeply loyal customers to buy and raise prices on, and Bending Spoons may lever up to take out some very big names. Yet the market does not credit existing SaaS companies with the same ability to raise prices on locked-in customers. x.com  x.com