A drone strike on a Chevron tanker near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal at Novorossiysk, reported by @DeItaone, is bullish for Ondas. x.com
NightHawk Capital
Stock Investor
Ondas is building a full-stack autonomous defense platform as revenue scales rapidly. Q2 revenue hit a record $83.8M, up 67% quarter over quarter and 13x year over year, and full-year guidance was raised to $525-550M. Israel's Ministry of Defense selected it for next-generation Digital Bat attack drones, and it closed the $875.8M DZYNE deal. The stock is holding its 200 EMA in a falling wedge, with targets from 9.99 to 12.42; losing 8.50 support would change the view. x.com
Ondas is shifting from drone hardware toward higher-margin AI software and data services, which supports a re-rating. Its Cyberhawk unit renewed and deepened an exclusive three-year deal with SSE for power-grid drone inspections, expanding into offshore wind via its iHawk platform. Ondas bought defense tech firms Insignito, Ottopia Defense and Caribou Labs, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $525–550M. Even so, its forward P/S trades at a discount to defense-tech peers. x.com
Ondas Holdings looks badly hurt by President Trump's 100% tariff on certain sizes of drones, as reported by @zerohedge. x.com
Ondas Holdings is set to benefit from a booming defense industry, and its chart looks great. x.com
Ondas is being handpicked: government officials are directly signaling which companies to focus on. x.com
Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.com
Ondas is scaling fast in autonomous drones and counter-drone systems. Q2 revenue hit a record $83.8 million, more than 13x a year earlier, and 2026 guidance is $525–550 million. Pro forma backlog is $757 million, it has captured over $240 million under the Army's $982 million loitering-munitions IDIQ, and in September it bought five more defense tech businesses. x.com
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.com
Ondas Holdings does not look too expensive for a company tied to the defense and drone supercycle with revenue growing nearly 1,000%. It has a $457 million backlog nearing $600 million after its $125 million Cyberhawk acquisition and recently raised its 2026 revenue target to $390 million, yet trades at about 8x EV to forward sales. Cyberhawk adds an inspection platform with 95% recurring revenue and a large real-world asset dataset. Risk-reward looks good as long as the market does not crash. … Show more
Ondas should benefit because the wars in Ukraine and Iran have proven that drones are the future of warfare. x.com