Cole
Momentum Stock & Options Trading, Public Trading Journal
Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet can lead higher in the short term as megacaps rebound after rotation out of high-beta AI names. The Consumer Discretionary ETF is showing a bull-flag breakout, and Amazon is bouncing off its 200-day moving average around 230, with room for another 10 points in the next few days. x.comÂ
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.comÂ
MAGS's seven major holdings are betting heavily on AI, guided by leaders with the best view of its future. There is no doubt the ETF will have its best year in 2027 or 2028, despite today's skepticism. x.comÂ
Bullish on Amazon, Alphabet and Meta together: AI should further strengthen the competitive moats of companies already winning, rather than erode their advantages. x.comÂ
Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft keep raising capital spending while investors' patience runs out. The spending continues as if there is no tomorrow, and margin and option holders are getting decimated. x.comÂ
Hedge funds went too lopsided short before Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet's earnings, setting up an aggressive short-covering rally if they deliver this week, as expected. SPCX crushed and ANT's S-1 was quite good, leaving a potential two-week rally on a razor's edge. x.comÂ
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Magnificent Seven stocks face continued pressure as AI capex keeps eating their free cash flow with no sign of slowing, and the market is not rewarding the builders for now despite the returns. The recipients of that spending in power, grid, chips and materials, such as TSMC, GE Vernova, Micron and ASML, look better. Concern is greatest for Tesla and Meta, whose recent moves seem disconnected and whose AI showcase was embarrassing; Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet are less concerning. x.comÂ
The Magnificent Seven look like a good long into earnings if the long-AI/short-Mag7 pair trade keeps unwinding, since Mag7 and software have been heavily shorted against AI names and may regain momentum. Google is the favorite. Nvidia and Apple are fundamentally preferred over Microsoft and Meta, but Microsoft and Meta offer better risk/reward here; Amazon rounds out the group. x.com x.com x.comÂ
