Stephen Manning
Founder of Cash Flow University, Options Education, Public Setup/Risk/Exit Reviews
AMD and Nvidia are pulling away from everyone else in the AI chip race; it is not Nvidia against the field. AMD's latest earnings showed revenue up 38% year over year and FY26 guidance raised 10% to $11.2 billion, and the stock jumped 18.5% to $466, past Goldman's $450 target. CEO Lisa Su called it a structural shift in the business. x.comÂ
AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.comÂ
AMD could gain a major new compute customer in Anthropic. Per @bubbleboi, AMD is rumored to take a stake in Anthropic in exchange for Anthropic committing to buy 2 GW of AI compute from AMD, similar to the deal AMD struck with OpenAI months ago. x.comÂ
AMD's valuation leaves little room for error even after stellar earnings. Sustaining 40% annual growth to 2030 gives $200B revenue and $80B net income at a 40% margin; at 20x earnings that is $1.6T, or about $990B discounted at 10%, versus $845B today. The market fears its acceleration coincides with the final stage of AI capex growth, as customers diversify from NVIDIA, a tailwind that may fade as capex growth slows after 2027. A solid hold, but new buyers should wait for a bigger decline. … Show more
Rapid growth in token use and data-center spending supports AI infrastructure beneficiaries beyond networking. BofA quotes AMD CEO Lisa Su on a 95-fold rise in monthly token consumption over two years. Nvidia, Marvell, Credo, Micron, AMD and Broadcom are the picks from BofA's beneficiary list. JPMorgan raised its 2027 data-center capex growth forecast to 70% from 50%. x.com x.comÂ
AMD is having a breakout year as hyperscalers spend more than $600 billion on infrastructure in 2026, about $450 billion of it on AI. Its CPU market share has climbed to 29.2%, and partnerships with OpenAI and Meta show it is no longer playing second fiddle to Nvidia. Its MI300 series is winning data-center workloads, and it is executing on its roadmap with a consistency that deserves respect. x.comÂ
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia crushed earnings, beating on revenue and EPS with strong guidance, and the AI supercycle continues. After-hours volatility should be short-lived, and an earnings-beat selloff would be a no-brainer buying opportunity, as when Alphabet gapped down on a beat and rose about 20% within a week. A halo effect should lift AMD, Micron, SanDisk and smaller AI infrastructure names. x.comÂ
AMD competes directly with Nvidia in AI training and inference chips, and its MI350 series is now shipping at scale. It has landed multi-year AI chip supply deals with both OpenAI and Oracle. x.comÂ
AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.comÂ
AMD has more AI accelerator market-share potential than the 7% forecast suggests. The more likely outcome is at least 15%-20% share, versus the forecast quoted from @pequityresearch. x.comÂ
