Rackspace's new AMD enterprise AI cloud partnership makes it one of the most attractive earnings gappers, because the stock trades at just 0.25x revenue with a small market cap and small float. x.com
Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
AMD trades at a PEG of about 0.9x, discounted because the market has spent a decade treating it as the eternal runner-up, a view OpenAI clearly disagrees with. Its 6-gigawatt compute partnership with OpenAI came with a warrant for 160 million shares, and MI400 Helios racks are shipping into it. x.com
AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.com
Rackspace's $250m at-the-market offering to retire about 10% of its debt, paired with a guidance cut, leaves shareholders badly hurt. It shows how absurdly priced AI-linked names have become. x.com
AMD's numbers remain mediocre, and the stock already trades at what it would earn in 2027 and beyond. @JonahLupton argues AMD is a 2027 story, when growth is expected to accelerate to 60-65% year over year. x.com x.com
AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.com
AMD now has to be extraordinary to justify its valuation, because it is priced on what it must deliver in 2027, not on past results. Despite revenue up 50%, data center up 107%, triple-digit profit growth and above-consensus guidance, the stock fell about 8% after hours; great is not enough when great is already priced in. x.com
AMD's fundamentals are very strong, but about 50x 2028 estimated earnings is a price that cannot be normalized for any company, under an investment philosophy that may be wrong. Per PrivPubInvestor, the stock rose from $450 to almost $650 in two weeks on CPU demand, analyst price-target hikes, new partnerships and the Helios rollout. x.com x.com
Rackspace fell into the $4.50-$5.00 base that has held all year, even as it signs AI deals, after its worst day ever on a guidance cut and a $250M raise. It has inked a 30MW AI compute deal with AMD and launched a framework with Palantir combining Foundry and AIP with Rackspace's governed infrastructure for regulated and sovereign enterprises. A break below $4.26 is the line where the view fails. x.com
AT&S's valuation looks too low relative to some peers given its Intel and AMD revenue exposure; ChatGPT-generated estimates of that exposure may prove too low for FY28. x.com x.com
AMD is the last AI name left to crack on valuation and should fall below $200-$225, likely within 12-15 months. AI suppliers such as Arm, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Astera Labs are already getting smoked on valuations, while hyperscalers like Alphabet and Microsoft are being punished. x.com x.com