Workday has 61% upside, according to a bot's model. x.com 

Workday at about 3x trailing price-to-sales is about as close to a floor as the stock is likely to get. Its stock-based compensation is legitimately comical, a concern @WaterworldCapi1 also raised, but the valuation already looks floor-ish. x.com 

Workday's Q2 was totally fine, and the business is steadier than the bearish narrative implied. Growth relies on upselling a mature HCM and finance base, giving about 10-12% revenue growth, while margins have plenty of room to rise from 14% GAAP. AI is only 6% of revenue, so the business is unlikely to change much. The real risk is big companies shifting spending to hotter AI tools such as Claude. A sale anywhere below $250 would be insulting to shareholders, and 20x earnings power is not crazy. … Show more

Workday's 3.80% 2032 bonds trade below par mainly because their coupon was set in a lower-rate regime, not because of credit worries, so they can work through carry, roll and pull-to-par even without major spread tightening. They trade roughly in line with generic BBB spreads. x.com 

Workday looks undervalued, with multiple valuation models putting intrinsic value near $165, a 15-16% discount, despite fears that AI will disrupt SaaS and weak enterprise software guidance from IBM. Its AI agents run at enterprise scale for over 4,000 clients, its 12-month subscription backlog grew more than 15%, and non-GAAP operating margin widened to 31.8% as management raised full-year profit guidance. x.com 

Workday is exposed because Anthropic has declared war on the enterprise: it hired Workday's CTO, who left after 11 months, and then posted that it is building its own Workday. AI got better and Anthropic started shipping like crazy, so buying the dip looks misguided. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Workday at 3x sales is a travesty for a business of its quality, implying the market expects management to destroy value through poor capital allocation on top of AI fears. It could likely raise margins toward 30% without much customer impact, given bloat and complacency; the same factors that make it easy to catch up also make it easy to run more profitably. Venture valuations like Rippling's make more sense with Workday at 6-8x sales. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Some software stocks had gotten stupid cheap, including monday.com, Wix, Cellebrite, Adobe, Salesforce and Workday, which makes the sector's rebound welcome. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce and Workday have another 25% downside, with Adobe already trading at 7x. That holds even against @dalibali2's point that both sit near single-digit free-cash-flow multiples and can keep growing free cash flow by double digits for a long time. x.com 

Snowflake and Oracle join the software names that, at decade lows, can rise at least 2-3x before retirement. The dot-com toppers are the precedent: chip, interconnect, optics and memory names fell 90-95% after 2000 and still came back 1,000-2,000% over 26 years. They now sit beside ServiceNow, Atlassian, Salesforce, Microsoft, Figma, Workday and The Trade Desk, preferred over chasing AI names. @TheShortBear notes investors are capitulating into AI as cheaper stocks keep getting cheaper. x.com