The US dollar is unlikely to break out in the short term without a catalyst. An in-line PCE print pulled down 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the dollar index sits at major resistance at its May 2025 high, USD/JPY at 162 is a critical level for the Bank of Japan to defend, and currencies move slower than bonds. A reopened Strait of Hormuz would also help Europe and the euro recover, adding pressure; that favors short-term longs in gold and emerging markets. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

The US dollar is about to move higher, and a rising rate of change in the 10-year yield is a risk alongside oil. Selling is picking up under the surface, beyond a breadth breakdown, with rotation into tech delaying the risk. @LJKawa notes the last time the S&P 500 was this close to a record with so few members above their 200-day averages was March 27, 2000, the day after the dot-com closing peak. Index resilience could mean an air pocket lower, or a bounce in equal-weight and small caps. x.com 

The dollar looks set to sell off into CPI, with Treasury Secretary Bessent likely to step in again on a cool or in-line print. @Barchart notes the dollar has already wiped out the July 31 Treasury intervention. Follow-through intervention, selling into a weak tape, is well documented back to the 1998 Asian currency crisis, and with it hovering close enough to 160, further intervention makes sense. x.com  x.com 

The dollar's longer-term prospects are very negative: 2008 showed the dollar-based system was built on quicksand, and 2026 showed the US has lost its leadership of the Western-oriented world. Both are very positive for gold. First, though, the dollar might rise on a flight to liquidity. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The US dollar's strength against the yen is a trend, as the Bank of Japan neither wants nor dares to reveal its hand. It is avoiding a clear 160 line and instead trying hit-and-run moves against yen shorts, and it is unclear whether it will actually strike. There is little basis for a sustained yen rally; even if it intervenes, its realistic approach is to fight while retreating, unless Fed policy clearly pivots, and Fed chair Warsh does not seem to want to give markets a clear signal. x.com  … Show more

The US dollar is losing hegemony after a costly, self-defeating fight over the Strait of Hormuz, hardly a bullish setup for it. As @eliant_capital lays it out, Hormuz was open, the US started a war that brought traffic to a standstill, spent billions fighting it, paid Iran billions to reopen the strait and declared victory. x.com 

The yen's intervention-driven rally looks weak and likely to fade, with USD/JPY possibly back near 160 soon. The Fed's EUR/JPY sale came after 4pm on a dead July Friday, signaling weakness speculators will test. Japan is slow-walking supporting policy such as rate hikes or repatriation incentives, and Bessent wants a lower USD/JPY without the US asset drawdown repatriation brings. If USD/JPY fails to regain 160 soon, though, the yen could rally hard, with spec shorts at record extremes. x.com  … Show more

The US dollar should go higher because the Fed will have to hike and oil is rising, keeping a 105 DXY target intact. Long-end yields rose by the equivalent of a rate hike even as the short end fell. Recent weakness looks like a positioning unwind plus a suspected Bank of Japan yen intervention, a 3.5% move in two hours. The 100 range on DXY needs to hold. x.com  x.com 

The dollar cycle has likely peaked because the Fed's next move is going to be a cut. Supply-shock demand destruction is doing the Fed's job and a strong dollar is doing the rest, so rates should fall, the dollar weaken, and duration assets, commodities and emerging markets reprice. A soon-ish end to the war should work against this view, but even if it drags on much longer, the rates curve has priced it in through the end of 2026. x.com