Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
XPeng's $900M robotics raise is a huge vote of confidence from major players, implying either its humanoid tech is the real deal or a deluge of humanoid investment is coming. Per @wallstengine, the round valued XPeng Robotics at $6.3B+, led by IDG Capital with Tencent and Alibaba, to scale toward IRON mass production by year end and deliveries in 2027. It also offers a favorable valuation comp for XPeng, which had looked cheap at under 1x; its robots' relative strength is dexterity. x.com x.comÂ
XPeng's cash and robotics valuation make a fourfold gain look possible. Its $8.8 billion market cap includes nearly $6 billion in cash, leaving about $2.8 billion of value above cash, while its robotics business alone was valued above $6.3 billion; that leaves the car business unaccounted for. Weekly RSI near 20 also resembles exhaustion at the 2022 bottom. x.comÂ
XPeng is not an investment worth owning because its own earnings described competition in the EV market as brutal. x.comÂ
XPeng's rising deliveries and rolling product cycle support the call that the bottom is in. Q3 deliveries reached 118,390, up 15% from Q2; September rose 5% month over month, and the L03 topped 10,000 units in a month. The G9L launched in China on September 17, with its global launch in Paris this month. The chart marks $9.52 as support. x.comÂ
XPeng could re-rate dramatically if the market starts pricing it beyond EVs. It trades like a car company while quietly building autonomous driving, embodied AI and robotics optionality, at a fraction of the valuation of Tesla, which trades like an AI and robotics company. x.comÂ
XPeng looks expensive against its earnings at 22x, double the roughly 11x automakers usually get. Fair value sits around $5.02-6.39, or 11x next year's $0.52 EPS give or take 12%, versus $11.39, about 78% above fair. The valuation leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 78% above trailing. This read rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
UBTECH Robotics and XPeng look set to benefit from a rerating of Chinese robotics stocks heading into the Unitree IPO. US robotics names have already started to move while these Chinese names have not, leaving them as likely the biggest beneficiaries. XPeng is also a fairly de-risked bet, with hefty cash on its balance sheet and its entire robotics stack valued at essentially zero at current prices. x.comÂ
A sharply higher humanoid shipment forecast supports robotics suppliers even as sentiment struggles. JPMorgan now sees 1.8 million units by 2030, about 152% CAGR. Ouster offers broad perception exposure through Rev8, Stereolabs and software; Harmonic Drive makes rotary actuators, Regal Rexnord frameless torque motors and linear actuators, VPG force/torque sensors for joints and grippers, and One Stop Systems rugged edge AI compute for field robots. x.comÂ
XPeng's story is getting more interesting as it combines EVs, flying cars and robotics in one name. It expects to begin flying car deliveries in 2027, and per @spaceandtech_ plans mass production of its Iron humanoid robot in 2026. The weekly trend is still down, about 19% below the 200 EMA, with no confirmed reversal, but declining selling pressure at 15.40-16.20 support offers early exposure. Holding 15.40 matters; a break below means reassessing. x.comÂ
Agility Robotics' Digit 5 release widened its lead instead of sending it back to the drawing board. The bipedal shift more fully realizes Digit's pragmatic, work-focused design and opens a larger future market and better AI training. Safety, the true bottleneck for real deployment, is thoroughly integrated, while Figure, a $40B peer, lists only a battery safety standard. A two-quarter slip and no new orders aren't alarming given a large order book; undisclosed pricing is the main concern. x.com … Show more