VirtualBacon
Crypto Investor & Educator, Macro Analysis
Solana is now a much larger coin and has already had its big growth phase, so Bitcoin should recover first. Solana moves about 1.35x as much as Bitcoin, so a 1.5x Bitcoin move implies roughly $195-$200, not the $234 level at Bitcoin's $125K high. Solana should still reclaim its old high later this cycle. x.com x.comÂ
Solana is no reason to sell now, near $107, since its larger drawdowns are the price of choosing it over Bitcoin. If Bitcoin falls 15%, Solana falls something like 25%; that is the trade, and an unleveraged top-ten coin that has not run hard is fine. The bull market is not in full force yet, so only trending narratives such as privacy and Robinhood Chain are moving coins like Zcash and Uniswap. The next broader move is waiting, not something to chase. x.comÂ
Solana is harder to fade because StonkFun's launchpad generated over $20 million in revenue in the last 30 days. SOL price action should follow. x.comÂ
Solana's 85-fold improvement in finality has yet to show up in SOL's price. Finality fell from 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds yesterday, while SOL slipped 2% and sits near $104 in the accumulation zone. Most won't notice until price does. x.comÂ
Pump.fun's continuing Solana sales add selling pressure ahead of a predicted move to $95 before the weekend. It sent another $14m of SOL to Kraken and has sold $875m since 2024 at an average of $160. x.comÂ
Solana's financial activity is scaling through stablecoin volume and institutional tokenized funds. It reportedly processed $5 trillion in stablecoin volume in 2026, while JPMorgan Asset Management launched two tokenized money-market funds on Solana for qualified US investors through Morgan Money. x.com x.comÂ
Solana's on-chain growth should soon show up in its price. Per @gemtoast, Solana has handled over 50% of daily crypto transactions for months and recently did about twice the rest combined. x.comÂ
Solana is likely to revisit at least $60 because the altcoin market has no new money coming in and the capital already inside is at a loss. Even SOL has gone flat against stablecoins. If a rally first requires a breakdown, that is now an acceptable path. x.comÂ
Solana should trade higher this year as a summer meme season returns, even though it remains one of the weakest altcoins, with a 150-180 target before trading lower again early next year. It must first reclaim the 85-90 area before higher levels come into play. x.comÂ
Ethereum's deeper capital liquidity favors a 65% ETH weight, while Solana's stronger trading and consumer activity warrants 35% SOL in a long-term allocation. At ~4.8 times Solana's market cap, Ethereum holds ~8.4 times its DeFi TVL and ~9.1 times its stablecoin liquidity. Solana leads in chain fees, app revenue and DEX volume, but app revenue need not accrue to SOL. Sustained growth in Solana's stablecoins, TVL and revenue could change the weights. x.comÂ
Pump.fun monetizes by selling SOL to buy PUMP, favoring PUMP over Solana's native token. Over the long term, the two should flip, primarily because SOL is expected to fall to $12. x.comÂ
Solana will catch up to Ethereum even faster than Ethereum catches up to Bitcoin, which should start as the market moves past the four-year cycle, likely by year-end or early next year. Beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, there are no real ecosystems. Ethereum's protocol captures $5 of every $100, against less than $1 for Solana. x.comÂ
