Aylo
Crypto Researcher, Founder of Alpha Please
Gold looks to be starting a new uptrend after resetting, though it may need a bit more time, because the debasement trade is alive and well. Aggressive FX intervention and signals of 'whatever it takes' bond market management from Treasury Secretary Bessent support it, and there are valid worries these are band-aid fixes. x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold puts offer a way to trade tightening liquidity without fighting AI. Stocks are the only place where liquidity seems to have improved over 24 hours, whether that is a short squeeze, a dead-cat bounce or liquidity from Nebius's price hike and Jensen Huang's comments. Mid-October gold puts need only about a 2% move. x.comÂ
Central-bank buying supports gold despite pressure from the dollar. Technical signals suggest a new bottom may be forming, leaving room for another rally to begin soon. x.comÂ
Gold is set for a brutal reversal higher, because it is down almost 30% from its all-time high and everyone is positioned for more downside, exactly when such reversals begin. x.comÂ
Gold looks to be topping as returning liquidity rotates out of safe havens into higher-beta risk assets. After gold printed a higher high, distribution is starting as smart money takes profits, while bitcoin has just swept its lows. Quantitative tightening has ended with $160 billion already added back, and more liquidity means more flow into risk. x.comÂ
Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.comÂ
